Previewing a Must-Win Series for the Diamondbacks vs. Giants

With the bullpen in shambles and Gabriel Moreno potentially injured again, the D-backs have their backs against the wall heading into the last week of the season.

Sep 21, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks second base Ketel Marte (4) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Milwaukee Brewers in the ninth inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Make no mistake about it. The Arizona Diamondbacks' series against the San Francisco Giants starting Monday night is a must-win series. A sweep would be nice, but nothing less than a series victory is necessary in order for the D-backs to insure their chances of playing in the Postseason.

Yes, Arizona still has a three-game series against the Padres over the weekend, but San Diego is red hot, and playing their best baseball. Leaving it up to needing more than one win over the weekend to secure their spot is not where they want to be.

The D-backs are tied with the New York Mets at 87-69, but the Mets hold the second NL Wild Card position due to head to head tie-breaker. The Padres are three games clear of both teams with a 90-66 record. The Braves are two games back at 85-71, but also hold the tie-breaker over Arizona.

The simplest way to look at it therefore, is if Arizona goes 3-3 this week, then Atlanta must go 5-1 to tie, and thus effectively pass the D-backs. Atlanta has three games against the Mets and three games against the Kansas City Royals.

Unfortunately the D-backs suffered a crushing defeat to the Brewers on Sunday, blowing an 8-0 lead and ultimately losing 10-9. The bullpen gave up seven runs over three innings late in the game.

Even worse, Gold Glove catcher Gabriel Moreno re-injured his left adductor (groin) muscle, and is getting an MRI this morning.

After the game both Moreno and manager Torey Lovullo downplayed the injury. But these types of muscle strains are notoriously slow to heal and easy to re-injure. Moreno will certainly not be in the starting lineup for the first game of the series. We will speak to Torey Lovullo prior to Monday's game to seek further clarity.

The Giants meanwhile are relishing their spoiler role. Despite being eliminated with their 77-79 record, they've won five of their last six games. That included a three-game sweep of the Royals over the weekend. Prior to that they took two of three from the Orioles. The Giants outscored two playoff contending teams by a score of 31-9 over those six games.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

Monday, Sep 23 6:40 p.m.

RHP Hayden Birdsong: 4-5, 4.74 ERA, 4.94 FIP in 63 IP

The rookie Birdsong lasted just three innings against the D-backs on September 4, walking five batters and giving up three hits, but allowed just two runs. He picked up a win against the Orioles going 5.2 IP on September 18. In between that he shut out the Brewers for five innings on just two hits on September 12.

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: 3-3, 5.09 ERA, 4.10 FIP in 40.2 IP

Rodriguez is coming off his best outing of the year in which he struck out 11 Rockies in 6.1 innings, allowing two runs in the victory. He struck out seven batters in five innings in the outing before that.

Tuesday Sep 24 6:40 p.m.

RHP Logan Webb: 12-10, 3.58 ERA, 2.96 FIP in 198.2 IP

Webb has had another outstanding season for the Giants. He threw seven shutout innings against the D-backs back on April 18. Leading the league in innings pitched for the second straight season, he may be tiring a bit in September. Over his last five starts he has a 6.58 ERA in 26 innings.

RHP Brandon Pfaadt: 10-9, 4.66 ERA, 3.58 FIP in 173.2 IP

Coming off the worst start of his career against the Brewers on September 14, he had the best start of his career in the rematch, striking out a career high 12 batters in seven innings September 19.

Wednesday Sep 25, 6:40 p.m.

RHP Mason Black: 1-4, 5.88 ERA, 5.37 FIP in 33.2 IP

Black is another Giants rookie starter that has struggled this year, but may have found it in his most recent game. He threw 5.2 shutout innings against the Royals September 20, allowing just four hits while striking out four.

RHP Zac Gallen: 13-6, 3.74 ERA in 142 IP

Gallen threw four shutout innings against the Brewers before allowing three homers in a four run Brewers fifth inning September 20. That blew a four run lead, but the D-backs scored in the top of the sixth to help Gallen earn the win.

Gallen has gotten past the fifth inning just twice in his last eight starts. He's struggled with walks and high pitch counts, especially in the first inning, leading to the shorter outings.

Bullpens

Even after adjusting for ballparks (the Giants play home games in an extreme pitcher's ballpark), the full season adjusted ERA- for the relievers favors the Giants. In ERA-, 100 = league average, and the lower the number the better. The Giants have a 98 ERA- for the full season, which is roughly 2% better than average, while the D-backs bullpen ERA- is 106, or 6% worse than average.

That's misleading however, as the full season numbers don't tell the up to date story. The Giants' bullpen has been excellent in September, posting a 76 ERA-. The Diamondbacks' bullpen has been the worst in the league in September, with an unimaginably bad 163 ERA-.

Giants September Relievers have all been lights out, except ironically Camilo Doval, who has lost the closer's role.

D-backs September Relievers. Only A.J. Puk is pitching well, none of the other high leverage relievers has a sub four ERA this month. See link.

D-backs Hitters Last Seven Games

Hot: Ketel Marte, 8-23, .348 with four homers. Lourdes Gurriel Jr, 3-8, .375, one homer since returning from the IL.

Cold: Christian Walker, 4-25, .160, one homer, four strikeouts. Geraldo Perdomo, 3-21, .143, one triple.

Giants Hitters Last Seven Games

Hot: Michael Conforto 7-21, .333 with two homers. Mike Yastrzemski only has five hits in his last six games, but three of them have been homers.

Cold: Patrick Bailey 2-16, .125, seven strikeouts. Tyler Fitzgerald, 4-22, .182, 11 strikeouts.