Ryne Nelson and Company Aim to Win Series vs Mets

The Arizona Diamondbacks could win their third series in a row and sixth in a row at Chase Field with win today against the Mets

Aug 23, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) pitches against the Boston Red Sox during the first inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports / Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are fresh off a thrilling comeback and bounce-back victory over the New York Mets Wednesday night as they came back from down 5-4 to win 8-5 thanks to Corbin Carroll's 8th-inning grand slam. The first pitch is at 12:40 p.m. Arizona time.

The Diamondbacks needed that victory in order to regain separation between them and the San Diego Padres and to put further distance between them and the Mets who are the first team out of a NL Wild Card spot.

The D-backs are once again now a season-high 19 games above .500 with a record of 76-57. They are just three games back of the Dodgers for first place in the NL West.

Arizona holds the first NL Wild Card spot and are a game up on the Padres and three games up on the Atlanta Braves. Seven games separate them and the Mets,

They have a +90 in run differential, one of the higher marks around the league and fourth-highest in the National League. Over their last 10 games, they are 7-3 including two sweeps.

Starting Pitchers

RHP Ryne Nelson, 9-6, 4.29 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 108 Strikeouts in 130 Innings

Don't let that ERA fool you, Ryne Nelson has pitched fantastic since the start of July and has seen that ERA climb down by a hefty amount since then. Plus, he's been unlucky as his FIP is much lower than his ERA.

Nelson has been a master at limiting walks with just 30 of them on the season. That's good for a low 2.1 walks per 9 innings. He's also been excellent at limiting the home run with just 0.9 given up per nine innings and only 13 in total given up.

Over his last 10 games and nine starts, Nelson has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of them, showcasing how dominant he has been. Over that span of 62 innings, he has a 2.76 ERA and 2.69 FIP indicating that he's been getting the results that he's deserved to get.

His ERA has climbed down from 5.42 to 4.29 during this time. In those 62 innings, he's walked just 12 and given up only 42 hits with 62 strikeouts. He's located his fastball perfectly and learned how to use his changeup and cutter to great success. Opponents have just a .602 OPS against him.

Nelson will have to continue his successful development of his fastball and off-speed pitches along with his cutter in order for the D-backs to have a chance of winning today's game.

LHP David Peterson, 8-1, 2.85 ERA, 4.20 FIP, 66 Strikeouts in 85.1 Innings

Peterson has pitched quite effectively in his limited action this season in MLB. He's been one of the Mets' strongest pitchers of late pitching seven innings or more in each of his last two starts. However, his FIP is higher due to seven home runs given up and a lack of control.

He has walked 37 batters over just 85.1 innings. If Arizona can be patient against him, they can get on base via the walk.

In August, Peterson has been at his best all season. He's lowered his ERA from 3.47 to 2.85 over the span of five starts and 31.2 innings. Over this span, he's 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 23 hits allowed, 11 walks, and 23 strikeouts.

It will be tough for the D-backs to lift the ball against Peterson as he is a wizard at getting ground balls. His ground ball rate is 52.2% which is elite. It helps to explain why Peterson has been doing so well of late.

He mainly throws a sinker, four seamer, slider, and changeup but can mix in a curveball. Each of the sinker, four seamer, and slider have been hit for an average at or higher than .250 while his changeup has been his best pitch and limited hitters to just a .167 average.

Starting Lineups

The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets starting lineups on August 29th, 2024 at Chase Field. / Jake Oliver

Corbin Carroll remains in the lineup against a tough left-handed pitcher thanks to how excellent Carroll has been hitting of late. He hit a homer against a left-handed pitcher on Tuesday and then crushed two more homers Wednesday night. Over his last 11 games, he has six homers and 14 RBI.

Plus, Carroll tied his home run mark through 87 games in just a couple of at-bats last night, showcasing how much better his batting stance and swing is right now versus earlier in the season. He has a 36-game on-base streak when starting.

Since July 2nd, he is hitting .250 with a .927 OPS and 15 home runs in 46 games with three doubles, six triples, and 37 RBI.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has been hot as well of late. Since August 8th, 16 games, he's hit .377 with a 1.035 OPS and 20 hits. Over that time frame, he has four doubles, two homers, nine RBI, eight walks, and has struck out just 10 times.

Geraldo Perdomo is another hitter that has been excelling in the month of August. Since August 3rd, he's hit .305 with an .881 OPS and 25 hits in 23 games. Over that span, he has six doubles, three homers, nine RBI, 11 walks, and has struck out just 15 times.