The Diamondbacks Need a Return of "Merrill the Mainstay"

Merrill Kelly takes on Blake Snell as thee D-backs go for the sweep in San Francisco.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) delivers a pitch at Chase Field on Aug. 31, 2024, in Phoenix. / Owen Ziliak/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Arizona Diamondbacks will go for the three-game sweep against the San Francisco Giants on Thursday afternoon. First pitch at Oracle Park is 12:45 p.m. Arizona time.

The Diamondbacks withstood furious late inning rallies from the Giants in each of the previous two nights to hang on and win by scores of 8-7 and 6-4.

LINEUPS and PITCHING MATCHUP

D-backs at Giants Lineups Sep 5th / Jack Sommers

Right-hander Merrill Kelly (4-0, 4.30 ERA) gets the start. Kelly is making his fifth start since being activated from the injured list after a near four-month absence due to a shoulder strain. In his most recent outing he went 5.1 innings against the Dodgers, giving up six runs, four earned. He ended up taking a no decision in an 8-6 loss.

Kelly was hit hard however, surrendering three home runs to start the game against Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman. The two unearned runs scored against him came as a result of his own throwing error.

Kelly's velocity was down in his first two starts, but that has since rebounded for the most part. What hasn't come back is his trademark location of his six pitch arsenal. Following the outing Kelly said "I'm just having trouble, especially glove side with the breaking stuff."

Hopefully "Merrill the Mainstay" can re-appear down the stretch, starting with this game. If he can dial it in and follow up Zac Gallen's great outing from Thursday, the Diamondbacks will have a good chance at the sweep.

Blake Snell (2-3 3.56 ERA) is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball and is coming off an August pitcher of the month award. The left-hander and 2023 Cy Young winner's season started late, due to signing late, and then he was injured in late April. He returned in late May, making three more starts before landing back on the injured list.

Finally healthy, he returned on July 9th and has been lights out since. In 10 starts since that date he's allowed just nine earned runs in 62.1 innings, for a 1.30 ERA. That stretch included a no-hitter against the Reds at Great American Ballpark on August 2nd.

The Diamondbacks faced him on April 19th, getting to him for five runs on nine hits in 4.2 innings, but he's been a totally difference pitcher since then.

The Diamondbacks will attack Snell with their mostly right-handed lineup. Christian Walker is back in at first base and the red-hot Randal Grichuk is in left field. Still, Arizona is forced to put three left-hand batters in the lineup, including Corbin Carroll in right, Jake McCarthy in center, and Adrian Del Castillo behind the plate.

So far this year left-hand batters are hitting .111/.231/.244 against Snell. It's notable that's in just 52 plate appearances, compared to 295 PA vs. right-hand batters. Teams typically avoid putting left-hand batters against Snell like the plague. For his career the split is not quite so extreme, but still favors right-hand batters, who've hit for a .655 OPS compared to .581 by left-hand batters.

The Giants welcome Matt Chapman back to the starting lineup. He got a day off yesterday. It was announced last night that Chapman signed a six-year, $150 million contract extension with the Giants. He no longer has an opt out, but has a no-trade clause.

BULLPENS

The Diamondbacks are likely won't have Justin Martinez, A.J. Puk, or Kevin Ginkel available for this game. Whatever innings are left on the table will be the duty of Joe Mantiply, Dylan Floro, Paul Sewald, and the recently laboring Ryan Thompson.

Giants closer Ryan Walker, and primary eighth inning setup man Tyler Rogers are fully rested, and have not had to work since last Friday, August 30th. If Snell has a long outing, it could be difficult for the D-backs to score late.

If the D-backs can have patient at-bats and Snell is off a bit with his control, which hasn't happened much lately, they might have a chance to make a push in the sixth and seventh innings as the Giants middle relief has been taxed heavily in this series.