Zac Gallen Has to Set Tone Early to Keep D-backs in Game vs Phillies

The D-backs' ace has fallen into a rough pattern, and will need to start hot to keep Arizona in today's game early.

Jul 31, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) throws against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks are hot off a thrilling 3-2 walk-off victory over the NL-topping Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field last night.

Young catcher Adrian Del Castillo, playing in his second career game, took the first pitch of the ninth inning deep, as his first career home run became a walk-off winner. More on last night's emotional victory can be found here.

Tonight, the D-backs will take the field for game three of a four-game set with Philly, starting at 5:10 p.m. Arizona time.

It's replica NLCS ring giveaway day, with the first 20,000 fans receiving a convincing replica of the NL Champion rings worn by the players, won by defeating these same Phillies in last year's NLCS.

Arizona is 64-53, in sole possession of the second Wild Card spot. Although their NL West rival Padres refuse to lose, maintaining the first Wild Card and staying 0.5 games ahead of Arizona, the gap between the D-backs and the Braves and Mets right behind them has begun to widen slightly, with a 2.5 game lead over the third Wild Card and 3.0 games ahead of the first team out.

Zac Gallen will be tasked with securing at least a split tonight. It's been a strange season for Gallen thus far. While we've seen some exceptional outings from the ace, his ERA is 3.75, and he's struggled with command and deception since coming off the IL.

His 3.34 FIP suggests he might have suffered some bad batted ball luck, but it's hard to deny that Gallen hasn't looked as dominant as he's shown to be in the past.

His last outing, facing the tough Cleveland Guardians, saw him allow 10 total basrunners, while giving up five runs, although he was left in the game to finish the seventh inning, and the D-backs did ultimately win.

He's delivered three Quality Starts since his IL stint, but his best outings have come against the A's and Nationals, two of the weaker teams in MLB. He was roughed up late by the Braves, blown up by the Blue Jays and consistently allowed the Guardians to retake the lead despite the offense's best efforts.

Strangely, the ace has fallen into a bit of a pattern that's been mostly exemplified by the younger starters this season.

In the first three innings of starts this season, he's sported a 2.67 ERA over 54 innings. Following the third inning, that ERA jumps to 5.01 over 46 2/3 innings.

Sure, ERA is a flawed stat, and sure, Gallen's overall season has still been solid, if not very good. His stuff is still excellent, and he does still lead the rotation in ERA, but his K/9 has been down almost a full strikeout from last year (8.58), and he's walking almost a full batter more per nine as well (2.95).

In last year's NLCS, Gallen was roughed up for nine runs over 11 innings against these Phillies, allowing first-inning home runs to Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper.

Still, he's been able to showcase extended periods of dominance, and certainly has what it takes to pitch at a top-tier ace level. But he'll need to stay sharp in the first few innings, as the aggressive Phillies tend to swing hard and early.

With his middle-inning woes continuing to strike, he'll need to ensure a clean box score the first time through. Arizona, one of MLB's best scoring offenses in the last month, has certainly been able to handle a few runs' worth of a deficit lately, but Gallen will need to set the tone early to avoid letting the high-powered Philly offense put Arizona into too deep of a hole to climb out of.

Across from Gallen will be the veteran righty Aaron Nola. Nola actually profiles very similarly to Gallen in terms of arsenal and style of pitching, as he relies heavily on his curveball, with fastball in the low-mid 90s. He throws an occasional sinker, unlike Arizona's ace, but matches the changeup and cutter in his arsenal.

Nola's pitched to a 3.54 ERA and 3.88 FIP, has excelled at keeping walks down, and has plenty of deception to induce both high rates of whiffs and chases outside the zone.

He's coming off a string of solid, though not exceptional outings. He can be hit hard, but Arizona will have to be patient and avoid swinging too early and chasing pitches. Eventually, the right pitch will come.

D-backs Lineup

Game 118.

🕔 5:10pm
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The D-backs are putting out their regular lineup against right-handers, with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte taking the first two spots.

Joc Pederson continues to mash righties, with a .919 slugging percentage and six homers in his last 15 games. The lefty DH is slashing .284/.392/.554 on the year, and has put forward a powerful July and August thus far, with a 1.007 OPS in his last 30 games.

Jose Herrera will take over catching duties from Adrian Del Castillo for the night. Despite Del Castillo's thrilling walk-off in last night's contest, Herrera is known to have a solid relationship with Gallen, with the young rookie available off the bench if needed.

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