Zac Gallen Needs Elite Command, Deception to Secure Series Victory vs Cubs

The D-backs' ace has a chance to follow up yesterday's win and take the first series out of the break.

Sep 8, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen (23) reacts at the end of the game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports / Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks held on to a 5-2 victory against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday. They sit at 50-48, tied with the New York Mets for the final Wild Card slot.

Today, D-backs ace Zac Gallen has a chance to take the series, and, potentially, a step forward in the rankings. The first pitch is at 4:15 PM Arizona time and will be broadcast nationally on Fox.

The last time Gallen took the mound at Wrigley Field was a memorable one. September 8th, 2023, the ace put together a masterful complete-game shutout, allowing just three hits, one walk, and no runs, while punching out nine for a razor-thin 1-0 victory.

He threw 107 pitches that day, 71 for strikes, and without his efforts, the D-backs could have easily gone on to lose. In a 2023 season where any one game's outcome could have determined their ability to contend for a pennant, Gallen's heroics through his first career CGSO came at a dire time--the waning weeks of a Wild Card race, with Chicago hot on Arizona's heels.

The Cubs aren't quite as much of a threat this season, sitting at 47-52, but baseball is a game of streaks, with even the most unlikely clubs in danger of getting hot without warning.

Notably, the D-backs dropped two in their first series with the Cubs at Chase Field. With the season series even at 2-2, Arizona has an opportunity to split it with a win today and hold a permanent tiebreaker with a three-game sweep.

Gallen's had his share of dominant outings this season, but some poor sequencing and inconsistencies with velocity and control have led to a rough stretch.

After a brilliant one-hit outing against the A's following his return from injury, he's been bit for 15 runs over his last three starts, ballooning his ERA to 3.87. He has a 1-3 record and a 5.23 ERA over his last seven starts.

Of course, that's a bit inflated by his last outing. Against the Toronto Blue Jays, Gallen struggled with his command and was hit hard from the start, surrendering nine hits and seven runs (six earned) over just 3 2/3 innings.

Gallen noted a massive uptick in velocity after his IL stint but appeared to be overthrowing, spraying balls all around and outside the zone, despite them clocking in at 97 MPH and above--a career-high.

If he can find a way to maintain his 94 MPH status quo, while keeping a better grip on his command, the D-backs will be in good shape. Of course, he'll also need to sequence well to set the Cubs up for swing-and-miss.

A well-located fastball is the key to executing his devastating breaking pitches, but he'll need to set up significant deception to miss bats, as he's been the victim of hard contact all season.

Across from Gallen is the veteran Kyle Hendricks. The big righty had been relegated to relief duties after a dismal start to his season but has since made his return to the rotation and pitched to a 3.48 in his last seven games.

He went seven shutout innings against the Cardinals his last time out, but his ERA still sits at an inflated 6.78. His FIP is 5.13, suggesting he's been the victim of some bad luck, but still hasn't been an overall effective arm for Chicago.

The 34-year-old boasts one of the more unique arsenals in baseball, with a fastball/sinker combo that barely tops 88 MPH. His changeup barely breaks the surface of an 80 MPH average, and his curveball borders on knuckleball territory at 74 MPH.

His Statcast page is a strange dichotomy, as his fastball, off-speed, and overall run value all sit in the first percentile, for a total of -17. His curve, however, is his best weapon, with a +4 run value, good for an 80th percentile ranking.

Hendricks has close to no ability to strike out batters or induce whiffs, and ranks in the bottom 20th percentile in both xERA and xBA. What he has done is completely shut down hard contact, in contradiction to Gallen's profile.

He ranks in the top 10% of MLB in hard-hit rate and exit velocity, limits walks, and induces ground balls at an above-average rate. The D-backs will have an opportunity to do serious damage against a guy whose stuff does not afford him to make a mistake in the zone.

Arizona's hitters will have to be patient however, as his slow-moving stuff creates plenty of weak contact and can be a challenge if not timed right.

Lineups

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago Cubs Lineups / Alex D'Agostino

D-backs hitters have had success against Hendricks, particularly this season. Although only facing him once, back on April 16th, Arizona lit the veteran up for seven runs over 4 1/3 innings.

Four Diamondbacks have an OPS above .800 in their career vs Hendricks.

Joc Pederson has two home runs and four RBI against the righty in his career, Alek Thomas is 4-for-10, and Christian Walker has a .300 average and .817 OPS against Hendricks.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 4-for-7 with a home run and four RBI in his career against the veteran. He's been one of the D-backs' hottest hitters, slashing .317/.326/.463 in his last month's worth of action. He has 16 multi-hit games since June 6th, tied for the most in the majors.

Gabriel Moreno is 1-for-2 against Hendricks, but has also been extremely hot, hitting .341 with a .931 OPS since June 29th. He was a driving force in yesterday's win, going 3-for-5 with a double, an RBI and two runs scored.

Overall, Arizona's offense has been hot. They've scored the 2nd-most runs in MLB this season, behind only the Yankees. It might not feel like that number means much with a 50-48 record, but, especially in recent weeks, the Diamondbacks' lineup has been hitting hard and often.