A Look Under the Hood at Ryne Nelson's Recent Success

Ryne Nelson has found some recent success. As he continues to try and find consistency in his game, we take a look under the hood to see what is helping him finally click.

Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) reacts to allowing a two-run triple against the Tigers during a game at Chase Field on Friday, May 17, 2024. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY

Ryne Nelson has been one of the Arizona Diamondback's most puzzling players. "Puzzling" is not a term used often to describe a young starter who hasn't secured his footing in the big leagues, but what we have seen from Nelson has often been just that. Recently, however, we have seen some things click for Nelson in a big way, and today I dive under the hood to see what is working for him.

First taking a peek at his full season numbers, Nelson's numbers are nothing eye popping. He has a 5.08 ERA with a much better 4.31 FIP. He has pitched 79.2 innings for the Diamondbacks in a season where coming into the year his role was unclear. Strikeouts have been lacking generally throughout his young big league career, but recently he's found some in a big way.

Over his last 5 starts, Nelson has struck out 21 batters, compared to only three walks. So is he starting to break out? That is a more loaded question.

Over that same span we just looked at Nelson has allowed 11 runs. In five outings that isn't exactly great, with that being heavily inflated by a bad six run outing against the Twins. The consistency in his game has been the biggest issue, something we have seen him come so close to recently.

Four of Nelson's last 5 outings have been fantastic, allowing two or fewer runs and going anywhere between five and seven innings in that stretch. Something is clicking for him in those outings. Nelson himself spoke on what he believes is guiding him to that success.

"I think it comes down to getting ahead of guys. I was attacking early and getting the count in my favor." This increased aggressiveness is part of the reason why his strikeouts have seen an uptick.

"There are a couple counts where I fell behind." Nelson continued. "If I can limit that, that's when the results really start to come."

An at-bat he called back to specifically was one against All-Star outfielder Jurickson Profar, in the first inning of Nelson's most recent start. Profar controlled the count and made Nelson pay by sending a ball over the right-field wall.

This would be the last run the Padres managed in that game as Nelson went right back to work, attacking hitters, and being very agressive in the zone against the Friar's offense. Nelson explained how he was able to take control of the game.

"It's been an overall focus of executing each pitch. One pitch at a time. When I focus on that it allows me to win 2 of the first 3 [pitches]."

Controlling the count, getting ahead, and winning each pitch. Those are all philosophies that Torey Lovullo, Brent Strom, and the rest of the Diamondbacks staff have really pushed, especially to the young starters in the D-backs rotation.

Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo spoke before yesterday's game against the Braves on Yilber Diaz, but his words didn't only apply to Diaz. "We want to tell our (young pitchers) that it's the same game, the same plate size, you just have to throw the pitches where you want and follow the game plan." Nelson has been following this mantra and has taken the coaching that has been given to him to heart.

Importantly, Nelson's FIP has decreased steadily every game since June 20th, showing what he is really doing on the mound. This is notable in part because one of those games since that date was the big blowup game against Minnesota. Nelson has faced some poor batted ball luck and the numbers back that up, his Fielding Independent Pitching being nearly a full run better than his ERA.

Nelson also spoke on what an outing like his last can do for the team. "I think it's funny because it tends to happen when the team needs it most. I am not super aware of it as the outing is going along, it's just more of trying to get deep into the ballgame, getting into the 7th inning. Those are the successful outings, and it's a bonus for me, and the team, that I am able to save the bullpen a bit."

Getting into that seventh inning is a big deal for a young pitcher like Nelson. It helps the team around him and keeps pressure on the opposing team to try and knock him out of the game as quickly as possible. On days when Nelson is at his best, he often finds himself still out there in those late innings, going at least 6 innings pitched 6 times in 2024 already.

"When I am controlling the counts and am getting into those 1-2/0-2 counts, that's when guys start swinging early and start getting themselves out on the first couple pitches. That goes hand in hand with those deep outings and going deeper in ballgames" says Nelson.

His last start clinched a series win against the San Diego Padres, the team's second consecutive win against a division rival, and in a series of tightly played games, Nelson's big outing was a massive load off of the relievers that had worked tirelessly in back to back high-intensity series.

The high-pressure outings won't end here for the young right-handed starter. His next start will presumably come against the Toronto Blue Jays, opening a big 3-game set that takes the team into the All-Star Break.

Nelson will continue to try and step up to the plate for the D-backs, and using the team's philosophy of getting ahead early and being aggressive against opposing hitters, Nelson as well as Diamondbacks fans around the valley hope to get the team off to a big 1-0 series lead against the Jays.