D-backs Set for Thrilling Final Weekend Series vs. Padres

The Diamondbacks season comes down to the final three games in front of a packed Chase Field to determine their playoff fate.

Aug 10, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; A general view of the fans in attendance for a baseball game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Allan Henry-Imagn Images / Allan Henry-Imagn Images

Arizona Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo said time and time again he thought it would all come down to the final weekend series against the San Diego Padres to determine their fate.

He could not have been more prophetic. The Diamondbacks control their own destiny, but will need to play great baseball to insure on their own they return to the postseason.

If the D-backs manage to sweep the Padres all three games, then they'll not only punch their ticket to a guaranteed playoff berth, but even have an excellent chance to win home field advantage for the Wild Card series. That is unless the Mets, who hold the tie-breaker over Arizona, go 4-1 in their final five games.

Standings

NL Standings through Sep 26 / Jack Sommers

If the Diamondbacks only go 2-1 however, there are numerous scenarios where they don't get into the playoffs. It's roughly a coin flip at that point. Keep in mind that the Braves also hold the tie-breaker advantage over Arizona. Any scenario where either the Braves or Mets are tied with the D-backs puts those teams above Arizona in the standings.

Starting pitchers for the series against San Diego have only been announced for game one. It will be Yu Darvish facing Merrill Kelly. Ryne Nelson was just activated from the injured list on Thursday, but it's not yet known whether he will start a game this weekend or work out of the bullpen.

Keep in mind that Kelly has battled cramping issues repeatedly in 2024 and in the past. Temperatures are expected to reach 112 degrees in Phoenix Friday and there will be over 40,000 fans in attendance. That means it's likely to feel like over 80 degrees down on the field and "swampy," as players often describe it.

Should Kelly's outing be cut short, Nelson could be called upon in long relief. On the other hand if Kelly gets through five or six innings unscathed, then look for Nelson to pitch on Saturday. Whether that's as a starter or piggybacking after Eduardo Rodriguez is still to be determined.

Brandon Pfaadt could be moved up in the rotation to start on Sunday. He would be on four days rest. Torey Lovullo said the team would be going full throttle this weekend to secure their spot.

First things first however. Nothing is more important for the Diamondbacks than winning the first game Friday. That will not only keep pressure on the Braves, especially, but also keep pressure off themselves.

Torey Lovullo has some very interesting lineup decisions to make. Will he start the left-handed Pavin Smith against Darvish in left field over Lourdes Gurriel Jr.? Or will he move Smith to right field over Jake McCarthy?

Smith has six homers in the month of September and for his career is 5-for-16 with four doubles against Darvish. It seems likely Lovullo will want his bat in the lineup. McCarthy has fared much worse against the Padres starter, going just 1-for-9 . Gurriel has just three hitless plate appearances against Darvish.

Two of the hitters that have the best head to head numbers against Darvish, Josh Bell and Randal Grichuk, are likely to be on the bench.

And what of Alek Thomas? Just called up from Reno, will he get a surprise start, or be relegated to defensive replacement duty in the later innings?

Full head-to-head stats can be found here

Stay tuned to Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI. Later on Friday afternoon we'll be posting the full lineups game preview.

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