Diamondbacks and Cubs Series Preview and Pitching Matchups

Arizona and Chicago face off in a crucial three-game weekend series that has large Wild Card implications for both teams.

Sep 7, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) delivers a pitch against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks come out of the All-Star Break and head out on the road to face the Chicago Cubs for a weekend series at Wrigley Field. The D-backs are 49-48 and just 1.0 games out of the NL Wild Card. The Cubs are only 2.5 games behind the Diamondbacks but with four teams in between them.

NL Wild Card Standings July 18 / Jack Sommers

On July 3rd the Cubs finished the day 39-48, and appeared to be heading in the direction of sellers at the trade deadline. But an 8-3 stretch has them back in the Wild Card hunt. The D-backs were hot as well heading into the break, going 8-4 over their last 12 games.

It will be up to the Diamondbacks to try to dim Chicago's hopes again. Last year they took six of seven from the Cubs in September to knock them out of the race.

Pitching Matchups

Friday, July 19, 11:20 A.M. MST, 1:20 P.M. CT

Ryne Nelson RHP, 6-6, 4.98 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 87 IP

Nelson is coming off a strong seven inning out against the Blue Jays in which he allowed three runs in a D-backs' 5-4 victory. Nelson has suddenly become one of the more dependable pitchers for the Diamondbacks in terms of length. Eight of his last 10 outings have been at least five innings. That includes three outings of seven innings or longer. He has a 3.98 ERA over that 10 game stretch.

It's interesting to note that when asked, Nelson said that Wrigley Field was his favorite road park. "I've only been there once but I would say Wrigley. Historical, the ivy, and everything. Playing day games out there feels like what you dreamed of as a kid watching those games."

Justin Steele LHP, 2-3, 2.71 ERA, 3.22 FIP , 86 IP

The fiery Steele has become one of the best pitchers in the National League, and he went into the All Star break red hot. He followed up a complete game victory against the Angels on July 5th with seven shutout innings against the hard hitting Orioles on July 11th. In those 16 innings he allowed just one run on five hits, two walks and 11 strikeouts.

Saturday July 20th, 4:15 P.M. MST, 6:15 CT

Zac Gallen RHP, 6-5, 3.87 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 77 IP

Gallen had the worst outing of his season on July 14th against the Blue Jays allowing seven runs, six earned in just 3.2 innings of work. He pitched six shutout innings against the A's in his first start back after a month on the IL with a hamstring injury. In the three subsequent starts he's thrown just 13 innings and given up 13 earned runs for a 9.00 ERA. His velocity is up, but command and sequencing are off.

Kyle Hendricks, RHP, 2-7, 6.87 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 70 IP

Hendricks has had a terrible season and was even demoted to the bullpen for three weeks starting in late May. The D-backs got to him for seven runs in 4.1 innings April 16th. He's been somewhat better since returning to the rotation, posting a 4.26 ERA over his last five starts. That includes seven shutout innings against the Cardinals on July 12th.

Sunday July 21, 11:20 A.M. MST, 1:20 P.M. CT

Brandon Pfaadt RHP, 4-6, 3.97 ERA. 3.67 FIP, 113 IP

Pfaadt may be taking over as the ace of the Diamondbacks staff. He leads the team in innings and quality starts, with 10. He threw six shutout innings against the Braves on July 11th, giving up just three hits without walking a batter. He's given up two runs in 16.1 innings over his last three starts. A strike thrower supreme, Pfaadt has 104 strikeouts against just 26 walks for the season.

Shota Imanaga LHP, 8-2, 2.97 ERA, 3.28 FIP 97 IP

The 30 year old rookie from Japan has had a tremendous first season in the United States. He has two bad outings account for 17 of the 32 earned runs he's allowed this year. He's allowed three or less in his other 12 outings, including 0 runs in seven of his games. He threw six scoreless innings July 10th against the Orioles.

Cubs Offense

For the full year Chicago has below average offensive numbers, this year scoring 4.23 runs per game compared to league average 4.39. But they've been hot at the plate in July, scoring 5.2 R/G while batting a team .279, witha .792 OPS.

Their three leading hitters have been Michael Busch (.271 BA, .823 OPS), Ian Happ (15 HR, 57 RBI, .810 OPS) and Seiya Suzuki (.271 BA, .813 OPS, 13 HR). Cody Bellinger is out with a fractured finger until late July or August.

D-backs Offense

Arizona is second in MLB scoring 4.97 R/G. Their .254 team B.A. is tied for 6th and they rank 9th in OPS with a .736 mark. The D-backs rank second in all of MLB in both batting average and OPS with runners in scoring position (.281 and .830 respectively).

All-Star Ketel Marte (.292/.362/.515, .877 OPS is leading the team in batting average, slugging, and OPS. He has 19 homers and 57 RBI. Left-handed platoon DH Joc Pederson leads the team with a .374 OBP and is right behind Marte with a .871 OPS while batting a solid .273 with 13 homers.

All-Star snub Christian Walker leads the team with 22 homers and 66 RBI while posting a .837 OPS and playing perennial Gold Glove defense at first base.

Bullpens

35 year old Hector Neris is closing for the Cubs. He has 13 saves and four blown, for a 76% success rate. He's posted a 3.82 ERA, has a 7-2 record and 3 holds. Mark Leiter Jr. gets a lot of high leverage innings despite a 4.78 ERA in 32 innings. He has a 2.48 FIP and 45 strikeouts, 13 walks, and just two homers. Clearly some bad luck going on there.

Paul Sewald is 13 for 16 in save chances for an 81% success rate. He has a 3.38 ERA but a 4.57 FIP. Veterans Ryan Thompson (2.04 ERA, 3.59 FIP) and Kevin Ginkel (2.63 ERA, 2.72 FIP) are having solid seasons. Justin Martinez has burst on the scene with his electric stuff to post a 1.32 ERA in 41 innings with 45 strikeouts and just one homer allowed. He's walked 17.