Diamondbacks Head to Kansas City to Face Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals

Another big challenge for the D-backs as the Royals are a tough team to face in Kauffman stadium and have a good pitching staff.

Jul 21, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (7) slides into third base against the Chicago White Sox in the eight inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports / Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

The Diamondbacks first post All-Star break road trip continues with a trip to Kansas City to face the Royals. Arizona is coming off a series victory against the Cubs, but lost a tough game on Sunday, failing to complete the sweep.

Their record stands at 51-49 and they're in a virtual three-way tie with the Padres and Cardinals for the third NL Wild Card position.

The Royals had no problems completing their sweep at home against that other team from Chicago, the White Sox. They outscored the Southsiders 17-3, and now have a 55-45 record. The Royals are especially tough at home, with a 34-18 record at Kauffman Stadium.

The Royals are trying to get back to the postseason for the first time since they won the World Series in 2015. They're in a virtual tie with division rival Minnesota Twins for the first AL Wild Card position. The Red sox trail them by one game.

The biggest reason for their resurgence on the offensive side of things is the outstanding season that Bobby Witt Jr. is having. The 24-year-old shortstop has taken his power/speed game up to a new level this year.

He's hitting .337/.382/.575, .958 OPS, good for a 163 OPS+. Witt leads the league with 134 hits, 55 of them for extra bases, including 17 homers. His defensive numbers were in the negative his first two seasons, but that's improved to +4 as well. It's all added up to 5.8 WAR, third best in MLB behind only Gunnar Henderson and Aaron Judge, who each have 6.6 WAR.

It's the starting pitching, however, that is the biggest driving force overall for the Royals. They currently rank third in all of MLB in starting pitching ERA with 3.44, and they've been even better in July posting a 3.16 starters ERA. Unlike the Diamondbacks, they've been healthy too. Their top five starters have combined to make 95 of the Royals' 100 starts.

Team Comparison

D-backs and Royals Team Stat comparison / Jack Sommers

As can be seen in the table above, the D-backs have the better overall offense, but the Royals have the better pitching numbers. It's often said that good pitching beats good offense, and the D-backs struggled to score runs in Chicago against the Cubs' pitching staff.

It doesn't get any easier the next three days. That said, the D-backs will miss two of the top three Royals starters in the series (Seth Lugo and Brady Singer).

Pitching Matchups

Monday, July 22nd, 5:10 P.M. MST

Yilber Diaz RHP, 1-0, 1.50 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 12 IP

The rookie right hander is making just his third major league start and hasn't pitched since July 13th. He's shown poise and maturity, shutting down innings with runners on base and getting out of trouble. He throws a 96 MPH fastball and has an excellent slider that gets a ton of swing and miss.

Cole Ragans LHP, 6-6, 3.16 ERA, 2.66 FIP 117 IP

Ragans has been excellent since coming over to the Royals in a mid-season trade with the Rangers in 2023. It's notable that his peripherals are fantastic, as evidenced by the 2.66 FIP. He has 141 strikeouts to just 38 walks and allowed only eight homers.

Ragans throws a 96 MPH four-seamer and has a showstopper changeup with a 49% WHIFF rate that neutralizes right-hand batters. He's got a fairly large reverse platoon split as a result, as RHB batters are hitting just .204 with a .593 OPS, but LHB are batting .282 with a .699 OPS.

Tuesday, July 23rd, 5:10 P.M. MST

Jordan Montgomery LHP, 6-5, 6.44 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 66 IP

Montgomery is not yet listed as the official starter as he's yet to be activated off the 15-day injured list due to right knee inflammation. It's expected that he will be, pending a roster move. While he has a winning record, and the D-backs are 8-5 in his starts, his season has still been a disappointment.

Montgomery has five quality starts, but also has four blowup outings in which he's gone between 2-4 innings and given up between 6-8 runs. That's too many non-competitive outings in just 13 starts. Don't expect him to go deep in this game as it's his first start back.

Alec Marsh RHP. 7-6, 4.52 ERA, 4.21 FIP, 92 IP

Marsh was 4-2 with a 3.24 ERA on May 27th, but since then is 3-4, with a 6.05 ERA. It's been a lot of hits and homers allowed lately.

Wednesday July 23rd, 5:10 P.M.

Ryne Nelson RHP, 7-6, 4.78 ERA, 3.90 FIP in 92 IP

Don't be misled by the Nelson's full season ERA. He's been one of the most dependable starters for the last two months. Not only is his FIP almost a full run lower than his ERA, in his last 11 outings he's thrown 63 innings and has a 3.71 ERA. He's been especially good in July, throwing 24 innings with a 2.22 ERA.

Michael Wacha RHP, 7-6, 3.55 ERA, 3.57 FIP, in 96 IP

Wacha is having a solid first season in Kansas City. He's not striking out a ton of batters, but is limiting walks and homers, and only failed to pitch at least five innings twice in 17 starts.