Diamondbacks Longshots, Dodgers Favorites to Land Roki Sasaki

The Diamondbacks are in the mix for Roki Sasaki, but just how good are their chances?

Mar 20, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Japan starting pitcher Roki Sasaki (14) delivers a pitch during the first inning against Mexico at LoanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

Japanese star pitcher Roki Sasaki of the Chiba Lotte Marines in the NPB is being posted and will be coming to MLB. This is according to a release from the Marines website. Below is an excerpt from their release, translated to English.

"We would like to inform you that we have decided to begin the process of pitcher #RokiSasaki transferring to a Major League Baseball (MLB) team via posting."

Comment from General Manager Matsumoto
"Ever since he joined the team, I have heard that he dreamed of playing in America. As a comprehensive decision over the past five years, we have decided to respect his wishes. I hope he will do his best as a representative of Japan. We are rooting for him."

Sasaki is the most exciting and dynamic young starter in Japan. Possessing a triple digit fastball and wipeout splitter, he went 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA in 2024 at the young age of 22. He's already pitched four seasons in the NPB (Japan's major league level) striking out 505 batters in 394 innings, while posting a 2.10 ERA

Due to the fact that he is under 25 years old, he is subject to the international signing rules and limits. This makes a huge difference. When Shohei Ohtani signed with the Angels in 2017, he only received a $2.3 million bonus. In contrast, Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed a 12 year, $325 million deal last year with the Los Angeles Dodgers at age 25 that included a $50 million signing bonus.

Like Ohtani, Sasaki will have to sign a minor league deal and ultimately go through the arbitration control years before reaching full MLB free agency. It worked out for Ohtani of course, as he signed a $700 million contract last year. Sasaki, being a pitcher and not a two way phenomenom like Ohtani, is taking a much bigger risk by coming two years early.

The entire bonus pool per team for 2024 ranged between roughly $5-7 million. Most of that money is already spent. The current 2024 signing period ends on December 15 and according to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. the D-backs have roughly $500 thousand remaining, while the Dodgers have $2.5 million left to spend.

The 2025 signing period opens January 15. The bonus pool numbers at Baseball America show the Diamondbacks have $6.9 million allotted, while the Dodgers have just $5.1 million available. There are eight teams with a $7.55 million signing pool.

In theory, the D-backs would be in a position to offer more money than the Dodgers should Sasaki wait until the new signing period begins to ink a deal. That is probably why the Diamondbacks devoted resources to scouting Sasaki this past season, including having Mike Hazen and Amiel Sawdaye attend one of his late season starts.

But it's not known how much of the D-backs 2025 pool is already committed through "handshake deals" as is the custom before the new signing period opens. It's unlikely the D-backs could offer more than a million or two above what the Dodgers can offer after January 15.

Sasaki has shown he's extremely eager to get his MLB career started. He requested to be posted last year, but was denied. So it does not seem like small differences in bonus pool money available will make much of a difference.

The Dodgers advantages and appeal are obvious. They already have two major Japanese stars, are coming off a World Series Championship, and are poised to dominate the MLB landscape for the foreseeable future. They are also the favorite MLB team in Japan, and the west coast offers more in the way of cultural and logistical advantages for Japanese players.

But the very fact that the Diamondbacks devoted resources and have the greater 2025 bonus pool makes them players in this arena, even if the odds are once again stacked in the Dodgers favor.