Diamondbacks Shake Up Rotation Order for Brewers Series

A series preview with detailed pitching matchups ahead of a clash between last year's NL Wild Card teams.

Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Zac Gallen (23) delivers a pitch on Aug. 30, 2024 at Chase Field in Phoenix. / Owen Ziliak/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Arizona Diamondbacks host the Milwaukee Brewers for a three-game series this weekend at Chase Field. The D-backs are 82-64 and coming off a two-game sweep of the Texas Rangers this week. They hold a slim half game lead over the San Diego Padres for the first NL Wild Card position.

The Brewers are 83-62, and hold a commanding 8.5 game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central with 17 games left to go. They are coming off a 13-2 beatdown by the Giants however and have stumbled a bit September, going 3-6 this month.

Taking advantage of two off days this week, the Diamondbacks decided to make some changes to their rotation order ahead of a 13 game stretch in 13 days.

Had they stayed in the original order, the starters this weekend would have been Brandon Pfaadt, Eduardo Rodriguez and Ryne Nelson. Then Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly would have started the first two games of the road series in Colorado against the Rockies next week.

But after hinting at changes for a couple of days, the D-backs announced the starting pitchers for the weekend series against the Brewers. Here are the most up to date pitching matchups.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

 Friday, September 13th

LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (2-2, 5.83) vs. RHP Freddy Peralta (10-8, 3.81)

Rodriguez slides up ahead of Brandon Pfaadt. He last pitched on September 7th, and will be going on five days rest. The Brewers do not hit left-hand starters as well as they do right-handers, according to Baseball-Reference. Milwaukee bats just .230 with a .682 OPS vs. southpaw starters.

On the surface, Freddy Peralta appears to be having a typical season for him, as his 3.81 ERA matches his career 3.82 ERA exactly. His walks are up slightly and strikeouts are down a little, leading to a reduction in K/BB ratio. That number was 3.58 the previous three seasons, but has dropped to 2.98 this year. Thus his FIP has increased to 4.29.

Saturday, September 14th

RHP Brandon Pfaadt (9-8, 4.42) vs. RHP Tobias Myers (7-5, 2.93)

Pfaadt's last outing was September 6th against the Astros and he'll be pitching on seven days rest. He leads the team in innings pitched this year with 165. Last year Pfaadt threw 178.2 total innings including 60 in Triple-A, 96.2 in MLB, and 22 more in the Postseason.

Pfaadt has struggled over his last five starts, giving up four runs or more in four of those games. His ERA over that span is 6.91. Pfaadt's K/BB ratio is still an excellent 36/7, but he's given up a whopping 41 hits in 27.1 innings, including four homers. Location mistakes inside the zone have plagued him.

Tobias Myers is a 26 year old rookie who was drafted out of high school in 2016 by the Orioles. He was shuffled around to the Rays, Guardians, and Giants across a seven year minor league career before finally signing as a free agent with the Brewers.

Milwaukee has spun straw into gold with Myers. Called up to finally make his major league debut on April 23 of this year, he's stuck in the rotation ever since, posting a sub-three ERA along the way. His 4.10 FIP and 4.22 Statcast xERA indicate some regression to the mean may be in order, however.

Sunday, September 15th

RHP Zac Gallen (12-6, 3.55) vs. LHP DL Hall (1-1, 4.01)

Gallen pitched on Tuesday against the Rangers, and was moved up to Sunday to remain on four days rest. He has put together two excellent starts in a row after a rough August stretch. The D-backs' ace threw six no-hit, shutout innings against the Giants on September 4. He followed that up with five scoreless innings against the Rangers September 10, allowing just two hits.

Gallen has walked six batters over these two outings, however, and has struggled with control at times this year. He has 3.3 BB/9 ratio, compared to just 2.1 over the previous two seasons. That's led directly to a sharp reduction in his innings pitched per start. Gallen averaged 6.06 IP/G over 2022-23, but this year that's all the way down to 5.28.

DL Hall was part of the return for Corbin Burnes along with Joey Ortiz this past February. He's spent most of the season in Triple-A but has been called up and down a few times. He's making his seventh start of the year.

Hall threw seven shutout innings against the Reds on August 30, and made two scoreless relief outings since then. He's not been scored upon in his last 12.2 innings.

BULLPENS

The D-backs' bullpen has been up and down all year. Paul Sewald lost the closer's job, and Justin Martinez has gotten all of the save opportunities since the beginning of August. He's converted all eight, but struggled in tie games.

Torey Lovullo has said that if he ended up in a ninth inning situation where two of the first three hitters scheduled to bat were left-handed he would go to A.J. Puk. But that situation hasn't come up. Puk has been fantastic since coming over from the Marlins at the deadline. He's given up just one run in 19 innings, giving up nine hits, while striking out a whopping 31 batters.

The Brewers' 3.15 reliever ERA is the second lowest in MLB. That's despite a 3.93 FIP, which ranks 15th. This is due to 78.6% LOB, or strand rate. Devin Williams returned from injury in late July to retake the closer's role from Trevor McGill. He's been outstanding, as usual, posting a 1.72 ERA with 10 saves and just one blown.

During William's absence, McGill saved 20 games, and blew just two. He has a 2.97 ERA.

OFFENSE

Despite just a 103 team OPS+, which is barely above average, the Brewers have averaged 4.8 runs per game, which is sixth best in MLB. With Christian Yelich out with a back injury, they are led by rookie Jackson Chourio, who is batting .272 with 19 homers, 70 RBI, and a .787 OPS.

The Diamondbacks lead all of MLB in runs scored with 802. The next highest total comes from the New York Yankees, who have 734. It's a balanced attack, with every starting player boasting at least a 100 OPS+ or better.