Is Brandon Pfaadt Moving into the Upper Echelon of Starting Pitchers?

The young Diamondbacks pitcher has been the most reliable starter on the team this year, and appears to be finding another gear.

Jul 11, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Brandon Pfaadt (32) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Brandon Pfaadt had a terrific outing on Thursday night, pitching six scoreless innings for the Diamondbacks in a 1-0 victory over the Braves. He allowed just three hits, walked none, and struck out four. It was a much-needed boost for the rotation and bullpen, as getting length from starters has been an issue for the D-backs, especially of late.

Torey Lovullo was still cautious, however, removing Pfaadt after six innings and 86 pitches. "Brandon Pfaadt was fantastic. I thought his stuff got a little loose towards the back end of his outing, and I had three pieces that were very usable today. I thought it was the right time at that point in the order to turn it over to Kevin Ginkel. "

MLB average innings pitched per start is 5.2, but the Diamondbacks rank 27th in MLB, averaging 4.9 IP/GS. That number is skewed a little low, as on six different occasions the team has utilized an "opener".

Pfaadt has been a workhorse, however, averaging 6.0 IP per start. His 113.1 innings are fourth in the National League behind only Logan Webb, Aaron Nola, and Zack Wheeler. That's pretty good company to keep.

Of his 19 starts, (tied for 2nd in MLB), he's gone six innings or more 14 times. Three times he's completed seven innings. He has 10 quality starts, (six innings or more with three earned runs or fewer allowed). That total ranks ninth in the NL.

Asked before last night's game what it is about Pfaadt that allows him to get deep in games, pitching coach Brent Strom said, "He's an extreme strike thrower, he has a variety of pitches he can use to neutralize certain hitters." That checks out. MLB's average strike percentage is 64%, while Pfaadt clocks in at 67.5%.

Some of Pfaadt's traditional stats such as his 4-6 won-loss record and 3.97 ERA may not stand out as above average. But advanced metrics such as xERA from Statcast (3.38) and FIP (3.68) indicate his run prevention should show up somewhat better. Pfaadt has 104 strikeouts to just 26 walks. That 4.0 ratio ranks 8th best in the NL.

Some of that gap between expected and actual results is bad luck, and some is on Pfaadt. He occasionally has what Torey Lovullo has referred to as "slippery innings".

Going back to the quality starts statistic, while Pfaadt's 10 leads the team, he trails the aforementioned Webb, Nola, and Wheeler, who each have 14. That's been the separator between being an above-average innings eater and a top-of-the-rotation starter. Strom addressed this issue as well.

"The lack of success Pfaadt's had, if you can call it that, it's always been one inning. Or a runner gets on let's say, he gets hurt by the home run ball. And we haven't scored a lot of runs for him, so it kind of manifests itself into a loss or whatever. But he's a six-inning guy for us almost every time out."

Run support has often been an issue for Pfaadt, such as last night. His run support per 27 outs while still in the game is the lowest on the team at just 3.7. The team average is 4.9 and the MLB average is 4.1. This is another reason that won-loss records can be skewed. Four of Pfaadt's six losses have come in games where he's thrown a quality start

Speaking further about Pfaadt's effectiveness Thursday night, Lovullo said he was "attacking the zone. The sweeper looked like it was swing and miss. The fastball command was outstanding."

This checked out too. He induced WHIFFS on four of the 11 swings against the Sweeper, and his overall strike rate for the game was 69%. It's quite notable that Pfaadt also reached the highest velocities of his career in this game.

His season average fastball velocity coming in was 93.5, but Thursday that average was up to 95. His four-seamer topped out at 96.8, easily the fastest of his career. He had several sinkers around 96.4 and 10 pitches total over 96.

Asked about the velocity increase, Pfaadt deadpanned, "Maybe I'm getting stronger, I don't know. [laughs]. I think it's just that part of the season where I'm starting to feel good and the ball is coming out good."

"I think everything felt good. I think the heater was playing really well today and we kind of stuck with that for the most part. "

Over his last three outings, he's thrown 16.1 innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 18 and walking only two batters. Pfaadt credits the fastball velocity increase lately to helping his overall pitch mix.

"The fastball velo has been up, so I think that helps off speed, mixing in the sinker with the four-seam definitely has been playing very well. I definitely attribute it to that. Those two pitches have been great, obviously the slider off that. I think just being aggressive. That's the goal going out every time out, I think we've been doing that"

Pfaadt made sure to credit the defense for last night's victory.

"I think Walker over there, it felt like he made eight web gems today. Having him over there every game is special. He's a game-changer for a reason. Those plays, he makes more than people think. Obviously, Jake's catch at the end of the game was awesome. I think it was an overall great win."

Pfaadt is 25 years old with just 38 games and 209 innings under his belt, Having already established himself as a well above-average, reliable innings eater, there is still plenty of room to grow. He appears to be on the cusp of joining the upper echelon of pitchers.