Is the Diamondbacks' Quiet Offseason Concerning?

Peeling back the layers of complexity and external factors impacting the D-backs offseason pace reveals a methodical process that D-backs fans should trust.

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen talks from the dugout before the team plays the Texas Rangers during Game 2 of the World Series at Globe Life Field on Oct. 28, 2023, in Arlington, Texas. / Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK

The Arizona Diamondbacks have had a quiet offseason so far. At least in terms of having concluded any trades or free agent signings. That doesn't mean they haven't been extremely busy behind the scenes, but for a number of reasons, their market has been slow to develop.

Just last week I wrote about Mike Hazen's track record of making at least one significant move prior to the Winter Meetings in six of the last eight years. But barring a move happening in the next 48 hours, Hazen and his baseball operations team will land in Dallas on Sunday with all of the heavy lifting still to be done. The reasons for this are fairly easy to decipher.

The first thing they need to understand is just what the market is for Jordan Montgomery, and how much of his salary they need to absorb to be able to move him. The D-backs have somewhat limited funds this offseason, but moving Montgomery would give them additional space to operate in both the free agent and trade markets.

I identified this dynamic in detail when laying out my proposed offseason plan for the Diamondbacks. Freeing up salary space by trading Montgomery was step one of the plan. His market is still developing, however. The recent signings of Frankie Montas and Mathew Boyd may have helped increase Montgomery's trade value.

So it makes sense that Hazen would have discussions, but also wait out the market as long as possible in the hopes he can minimize the portion of his salary the D-backs must pay in 2025. He can't wait too long however, as Hazen alluded to in his conversation with Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

“At some point, it doesn’t make sense because your pivot moves are picking at the edges rather than getting somebody (who is more of a target),” Hazen said.

The second reason they have not made a deal yet, is that if given the chance, they would probably like to bring back at least one or two of the players that have become free agents this offseason. But doing so requires patience as those players explore their markets.

We've long held the position that bringing back Christian Walker may be out of their price range. The three time Gold Glove first baseman is widely expected to get a multi-year deal with an average annual salary up to or even above $20 million per year.

However there is a factor that may hold down his market. The teams most in need of a first baseman, the New York Yankees, New York Mets, and Houston Astros, are all luxury tax payers. The penalties for signing a player that declined a qualifying offer, which is what Walker did, are quite severe. The following is excerpt is from the MLB.com Glossary pages.

• Competitive Balance Tax payors: A team that exceeded the CBT threshold in the preceding season will lose its second- and fifth-highest selections in the following year’s Draft, as well as $1 million from its international bonus pool for the upcoming signing period. If such a team signs multiple qualifying-offer free agents, it will forfeit its third- and sixth-highest picks as well.

So there is still the possibility that Walker's market may shrink somewhat due to this factor. Whether it will shrink enough to enable the Diamondbacks to bring Walker back remains to be seen.

Likewise, Joc Pederson is a player the Diamondbacks would certainly love to have return, after all they were willing to pay him $14 million for 2024, but Pederson turned that down. How much more of a guarantee Pederson can secure beyond that remains to be seen.

Last year Pederson had to wait until fairly late in the offseason to get a contract. It shouldn't take as long as last year, considering the season he just had. The market needs some time to develop however.

That brings us to the third factor, which is Juan Soto. Until he decides who he's signing with, much of the position player, hitter market is on hold. Dan Gartland of SI: AM gave us a comprehensive breakdown of how that decision is likely to play out.

Once it's known who wins the Soto sweepstakes, expect the market to move fairly quickly. As Gartland reported, Soto is already narrowing down his potential suitors and is expected to make his decision by the start of the Winter Meetings. Considering Scott Boras' flair for the dramatic, I would expect the Soto deal to dominate the first day or so of the meetings.

So while the Diamondbacks have not yet made any moves, it's not because they aren't conducting their due diligence, or not interested in improving the team. They are. But they need to be strategic, patient, and allow for factors outside their control to play out and then react accordingly.