Jordan Montgomery Can't Rely on Luck vs Twins

The D-backs' left-hander has struggled with his location, and he needs to start hitting the edge of the zone to be more effective.

Jun 11, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Jordan Montgomery (52) pitches against the Los Angeles Angels during the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports / Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

After dropping game two of a three-game set with the Minnesota Twins at home, the Arizona Diamondbacks are in desperate need of a series win to help aid the slow climb back to .500. They'll have a chance to take the series at Chase Field today; first pitch is at 12:40 PM Arizona time.

Left-hander Jordan Montgomery will start for the D-backs. He's been marred by several poor outings, showing a 5.71 ERA, with his FIP over a full run lower at 4.46.

Now, while that ERA/FIP discrepancy might suggest some bad luck, the truth is that Montgomery is consistently failing to hit ideal spots in and around the zone, while having a difficult time generating whiffs.

Statcast allows us to measure just how many pitches are going where in the zone. The MLB average for pitches thrown in the "heart" of the zone by starting pitchers is 15.8%.

Montgomery is throwing 25.7% of his pitches in the heart of the zone. Now, this approach might be a little more feasible for guys with high velocity or an exceptional ability to create whiffs, but Montgomery hasn't done that thus far.

He has only a 15.2% whiff rate on these pitches, and opponents are hitting .385 (.355 xBA) against them, while slugging .697.

In order for him to succeed at a higher rate going forward, he'll have to find a way to miss bats, and dot his pitches around the edges of the zone, forcing batters to chase or hit into weaker contact. Relying on batted ball luck to get him outs as he throws low-90s in the middle of the zone is a recipe for a continued downward spiral.

All of that aside, Montgomery has put together three solid starts in a row, pitching five or more innings and allowing three or fewer runs in each game of that stretch.

He's 3-0 since June 5th, and has struck out 12 batters in his last 11 innings, a trend that the D-backs would very much like to see continue upward.

Across from Montgomery, Minnesota's mystery pitcher has been revealed. The Twins are calling up 24-year-old right-hander David Festa to make his first career major league start in lieu of the injured Chris Paddack.

Festa has climbed his way steadily through the minors since 2021, pitching generally well at each level, including a 3.77 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts this season.

Festa is a whiff machine, striking out an astounding 87 batters over just 59 2/3 innings in the minors this year while walking 24.

He features a mid-90s fastball, with a devastating slider/changeup combo. All three pitches see significant whiff rates, but the slider and changeup sit at 44.8% and 41.2% respectively. Opponents are hitting just .198 off the slider. He does throw an occasional curve, but it doesn't profile as a major weapon.

The D-backs will face a unique challenge to not strike themselves out of the game early. Making some contact, doing whatever it takes to get on base and creating pressure on the young prospect on the basepaths will be crucial to set the offensive tone of the game and give Montgomery a lead to work with.

Lineups

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins Lineup / Alex D'Agostino

Torey Lovullo hinted at it two days ago, but Eugenio Suarez is out of the lineup, and Kevin Newman will make his first start at third base today. The struggling Suarez hasn't shown much to suggest he'll come out of the slump, and rookie Blaze Alexander is still struggling defensively, so Lovullo will opt to go with the solid-hitting Newman at the hot corner in today's game.

He's not hitting for power, but he is hitting for contact well, with a .285 average on the season. In his last seven games, the veteran infielder is slashing .600/.625/.667.

Other than the change at third, it's a relatively chalk righty-killing lineup, with Corbin Carroll leading off and the ever-hot and deserved All-Star Ketel Marte behind him.

Click here to vote for Marte to take the second base spot in the All-Star Game.

The only other change is Jose Herrera taking over from Tucker Barnhart and hitting 9th, as Gabriel Moreno inches closer to a return.

The Twins will march out a parade of right-handed and switch-hitters today, without a single lefty bat in the lineup. The formerly blazing-hot Royce Lewis, who had 10 home runs in his first 17 games of the season, has gone 0-for-12 in his last three games.

He's still slashing a monstrous .311/.381/.757, and the D-backs should be wary of a potential breakout, especially against lefties. He has a 1.230 OPS against southpaws, although only two of his 10 home runs count toward that split.

The D-backs are 39-41, and are in need of a series win today before the Oakland A's come to town for a three-game set. Anything less than a 4-2 homestand would see them remain below .500, each day inching closer to a missed playoff berth.