Just How Tough is the Diamondbacks Upcoming Schedule?

With some big name opponents on the docket, we take a deeper dive into the home and road records of those teams and project how this stretch might impact Mike Hazen's trade deadline decisions.

Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen talks to manager Torey Lovullo during spring training workouts at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale on Feb. 17, 2023. / Rob Schumacher/The Republic / USA TODAY

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 38-40 record, and are 1.0 games behind the Padres for the third National League Wild Card spot. They're also in third place in the NL West, 9.5 games behind the first place Dodgers, with those same Padres in second place in the division.

The D-backs are 13-8 in the month of June, having taken advantage of a softer spot in their schedule. What we're doing here today is looking at the strength of schedule between now and the July 30th trade deadline.

The reason for that is simple. Mike Hazen and his front office will be evaluating the team, and their chances to get back to the postseason. What they do in the run up to the trade deadline will be determined by the team's performance over the nest five weeks, and the results they get.

There are 29 games between June 25th, when the D-backs face the Twins at home, and July 29th, the last game before the deadline against the Washington Nationals. A cursory glance at the teams on the schedule shows some very tough opponents, such as the Twins, Dodgers, Padres and Braves.

However it's important to note the home and road record of the D-backs opponents. 17 of those games are at home and 12 are on the road. The table below shows the D-backs 17 home opponents records on the road, and their road opponents record at home.

The W-L totals in the table below are for the opponents record either home or away, depending on where the game will be played. As can be seen, the cumulative road records of the team's the D-backs will play at chase is just .451. The 12 road games on the other hand will be against teams with a cumulative home record of .571.

D-backs Home and Road Opponents Records / Jack Sommers

The next table shows the opponents in the order they will be played on the schedule. The W-L are once again the records of those opponents by by the relevant home or away venue.

So for example, the Minnesota Twins are 43-35 overall, but 20-19 on the road. That road record for the Twins is the one we're looking at. The total record of the opponents comes out to exactly .500.

D-Backs Schedule with Opponents H/A Records / Jack Sommers

Viewed through this lens, as opposed to just to the total records of the D-backs' upcoming opponents, makes the schedule seem a little less daunting. As good as the Twins and the Braves are this year, their road records are just average. Oakland and Toronto are both weak opponents when they're on the road.

The away games in Los Angeles and the road trip immediately coming out of the break to Chicago and Kansas City appear to be the two toughest points in the schedule.

The D-backs themselves are 19-18 at home, and 19-22 on the road. Weighting the Diamondbacks own home and away records against their opponents home and away records I came out to a projection of 14-15 for the 29 games.

They'll need to do better than that to convince their General Manager Mike Hazen to be aggressive at the trade deadline. But such a record would likely still have them quite close to a playoff spot too.

Could they do better than that against the this schedule, giving Hazen more cause to go for it? They're looking to get Zac Gallen back by the weekend to pitch in the Oakland series. That should help.

Don't expect Merrill Kelly back until mid August however, well after the deadline. Eduardo Rodriguez appears to be a week or two ahead of Kelly. Whether he can pitch before the trade deadline is still in doubt.

Hazen, along with every other potential buyer in the league, will be looking for pitching. And that is in short supply, with prices sure to be sky high,.

Ultimately the D-backs chances will continue to hinge on their starting pitching. Jordan Montgomery will need to continue to progress, and Gallen needs to return as the Ace of the staff. Equally important will be getting more consistency out of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Slade Cecconi too.

That consistency has been elusive, but until Kelly and Rodriguez can pitch, and pitch effectively, that is where the D-backs hopes still rest.