Ryne Nelson Makes a Strong Statement to Stay in D-backs Rotation

A spectacular outing by the young right-hander coupled with Jordan Montgomery's poor performance has created a difficult decision for the Diamondbacks

Aug 9, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson (19) throws against the Philadelphia Phillies in the first inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports / Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a decision to make. With Starter Merrill Kelly primed to the return to the rotation on Sunday, they need to decide who gets to the stay in the rotation. That decision seems to have come down to Jordan Montgomery or Ryne Nelson.

Montgomery has struggled most of the year, pitching to a 6.37 ERA. On Thursday he gave up 12 base runners in 5.2 innings and was ultimately charged with four earned runs.

Nelson meanwhile has been excellent since the start of July. He went into Friday's start having thrown 42 innings with a 2.98 ERA since July 2nd. He'd struck out 40 and walked just 10, while giving up just one homer over that stretch.

Prior to last night's game, manager Torey Lovullo was asked if the upcoming start for Ryne Nelson was going to factor in his decision regarding who stays in the rotation.

"I think so. When you're slicing the pie as thin as we are, every little pice matters. So we're going to wait it out and see what tonight looks like for sure."

What he got to see was one of the most dominant starts of the year by any Diamondbacks pitcher. Nelson was extremely aggressive with his fastball in the early going, utilizing the pitch to jump ahead in the count.

Perfect through the first four innings, he threw first pitch strikes to every batter as he faced the minimum. He only struck out two but needed just 32 pitches as he induced mostly soft contact.

The exception was was a line shot by Johan Rojas to right field in the third inning. Corbin Carroll made a tremendous leaping catch in front of the fence to end inning.

Nelson then struck out Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper in the fourth inning. He got Schwarber on an elevated fastball above the zone which the Phillies slugger couldn't check on. Then he challenged Harper with a 98 MPH heater in the middle of the plate and Harper foul tipped it into Adrian Del Castillo's glove.

It was a bloop hustle double into shallow right center by Alec Bohm to lead off the fifth that broke up the no-hitter and perfect game. Nonplussed, Nelson proceeded to strike out the next three batters. He blew Brandon Marsh and J.T. Realmuto away with 98 and 99 MPH heaters respectively. Then he got Nick Castellanos with a slider down and away.

In the sixth inning Rojas hit a one out single, but was promptly doubled off on a 112 MPH line drive by Schwarber hit right to second baseman Kevin Newman.

The Phillies finally got a run off Nelson in the seventh. Bryce Harper managed to get the barrel on a well located fastball down and away. The fly ball just snuck over the wall in left field for an opposite field home run. Nelson followed that by striking out Bohm and Marsh, equaling his career best nine strikeouts.

With A.J. Puk warming in the bullpen, Lovullo sent Nelson back out for the eighth inning. "I felt like at [86] pitches he had enough gas in his tank to go back out there and get a couple hitters". Nelson walked Castellanos with one out however, and left-hand batter Bryson Stott in the on deck circle.

At that point Puk came in and struck out pinch hitter Edmundo Sosa. But Rojas hit a long double off the left center field wall to score Castellanos to tie the game up. The D-backs ultimately won the game on a ninth inning walkoff homer by Adrian Del Castillo.

That ended Nelson's line with 7.1 IP, 3 hits, 2 ER, 1BB, 9 K"s. He threw 97 pitches, 72 for strikes. He threw first pitch strikes to the first 17 batters he faced and 22 of 25 overall. He threw 59 fastballs and by the second and third time around the order he started using his cutter a lot. It was all effective.

Nelson's record now stands at 8-6, and he's second on the team with 117.2 innings pitched. He dropped his ERA to 4.51 and his FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) is almost a run lower at 3.64. He's gone at least five innings in each of his last eight outings, and pitched into the seventh inning or later four times during this stretch.

Evaluating his outing Lovullo said "He was outstanding. It was one of those special nights where a lot of pitches were working, a lot of things were going where he wanted, with the direction, with the back spin and the velo, and I just wanted to get out of the way of it. I enjoyed it, I was a fan there watching a really good pitcher get after it. "

The clear and simple conclusion is that Nelson has arrived as a bonafide major league starting starting pitcher. The Diamondbacks cannot and will not remove him from the rotation. It's almost unthinkable at this point.

When asked several times prior to the game if he and his staff were considering a six-man rotation, Lovullo finally relented to say "I don't think so, I think that might be one thing that we eliminated today, so I don't think we're going to do that".

Revisiting the pre game discussion and the decision at hand, Lovullo was not ready to discuss it post game. "I don't know, I don't know what we're thinking. We had the conversation, it ended. We're going to reload that conversation."

If the team wishes to avoid the tough decision to remove Montgomery from the rotation, then they'll have to go back and reconsider the six man rotation option. If they're still unwilling to go that route, then they'll need to have a very difficult conversation, and one that is fraught with danger to clubhouse cohesion.

Montgomery is a veteran with a good track record. He also has a 2025 player option that increases from $20 million to $22 million with just one more start, which would be his 18th of the year. If he reaches 23 starts, that goes to $25 million, equaling his 2024 salary.

Removing him from the rotation at this juncture would clearly the best choice from purely a baseball standpoint in an attempt to win games now. That's not an easy thing to do from either the front office or the manager's perspective however It might not go over well with some of the veterans either, especially those with numerous types of options and incentives in their contracts.

At the same time, Lovullo frequently states it's all about winning games. Pulling Nelson from the rotation now would send all the wrong signals to the young players in the clubhouse that no matter how well you do, you'll still give way to a veteran, even an under performing one.

Those considerations make this an extremely difficult organizational decision, and not one Lovullo will make alone. But he will be the one to have the tough conversations with the player and the media though. Stay Tuned.

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