MLB 2025 Win Projections vs. Sportsbook Over/Under Lines

Taking a look at which teams have the biggest variance between projected wins and betting over/under lines

Padres fans watch the sun set in the seventh inning during a game against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field in Phoenix on April 22, 2023. / Patrick Breen/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Last year at this time we took at a look at how the various projection systems' projected win totals for MLB teams compared to various sportsbook sites' over/under lines. That produced some very interesting results that turned out to be accurate indicators of large differences.

For example, heading into 2024 spring training the Los Angeles Dodgers were projected to win 94.5 games, but the over/under lines were between 103.5 and 104.5. They won 98.

On the other end of the spectrum, the Brewers' over/under lines were between 75.5 and 76.5, but they were projected to win 80.8 games by FanGraphs. They won 93.

In the American League, the projections had the Texas Rangers at 81.4 wins, but the over/under lines were set between 89-90.5. They won just 78 games. Meanwhile the Athletics were projected to win 69.7 games, but the over/under lines pegged them to a lowly 56.5-57.5.

Related Content: 2024 MLB Win Projections vs. Betting Sites Over/Under Lines

Thus, using this methodology we can see the projection systems beat the over/under lines for the teams with the biggest variances between the two. Recreating this methodology with a few tweaks for 2025 brings some more interesting results.

In the table below, the WTD Avg Proj column is a weighted average of FanGraphs' Playoff Odds and Baseball Prospectus Pecota Standings.

As FanGraphs inputs include two separate projection systems, ZiPS and Steamer, it is therefore two thirds of the weight, and Pecota Standings are one third of the weight.

The weighted average is then compared to the over/unders on two different sportsbooks, bet365 and FanDuel. Teams with the largest variance are highlighted. First let's look at the National League.

NL Projections vs Over/Under lines / Jack Sommers

After a relatively quiet offseason, the San Diego Padres are projected to win just 82.3 games, which is 7.2 games under the bet365 win total. This is by far the biggest variance in the NL.

The Dodgers are projected to win 99.7 games, but their FanDuel win total is 104.5, giving an under variance of -4.8 wins.

On the flipside, the Miami Marlins are projected to win 67.5 games, but the over/under total at both betting sites is 63.5, providing an over variance of +4. The next highest over variance comes from the St. Louis Cardinals, who are at +2 vs. bet365 and +3 vs FanDuel.

For Arizona Diamondbacks fans who read this site, it should be noted the 86.2 win projection is just 0.7 wins highter than the 85.5 over/under line from both Sportsbooks.

AL Projections vs Over/Under lines / Jack Sommers

In the American League, the team with the largest over variance is the Chicago White Sox. They have by far the largest variance in either direction of any team in MLB. The projection systems see a 62-win team, but the betting sites have them winning 51.5 and 52.5 respectively.

The New York Yankees meanwhile have the largest under variance in the AL, at -5.5. Perhaps due to them being a popular team, much like the Dodgers, those lines are set somewhat higher.

The Cleveland Guardians (under), Toronto Blue Jays (over), Los Angeles Angels (over), and Baltimore Orioles (under) also have somewhat larger variances.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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