Should You Take the Over on Diamondbacks Wins for 2025?

Comparing FangGraphs projections with Draft Kings over/under win line reveals a potential opportunity

Sep 21, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Randal Grichuk (15), Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Jake McCarthy (31) and Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrate a win over the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images / Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are coming off an 89-73 season in 2024, but missed the Postseason by one game. That impressive regular season win total was actually five wins more than the they tallied in 2023 when they went all the way to the World Series despite squeaking in as the final Wild Card team with an 84-78 record.

As of this writing, Draft Kings Sportsbook has pegged the Diamondbacks over/under win total for 2025 at 83.5, with a -110 line. This article explores whether or not the Diamondbacks project to be over or under that win total.

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Arizona scored 886 runs in 2024, by far the most in MLB, and posted the second highest OPS with a .777 mark, just four points behind the Los Angeles Dodgers' .781 mark. The pitching ranked 27th in ERA however, and ultimately proved to be their undoing.

The attrition to the offense has been significant, as Christian Walker and Joc Pederson have each signed with other teams in free agency. Randal Grichuk, Josh Bell and Kevin Newman are also free agents. Those players represented 69 of the team's 211 homers, and 244 of the 844 RBI.

Related Content: Free Agency Leaves Huge Holes in Diamondbacks' Lineup

Despite those departures, the D-backs are still projected to have a good offense and strong defense according to Fangraphs Depth Chart Projections.

Now, with the addition of first baseman Josh Naylor, Arizona is projected to garner 28.2 position player WAR (wins above replacement). That is the seventh-highest total in MLB.

The pitching meanwhile is projected to improve, simply due to regression to the mean. A number of Diamondbacks pitchers suffered injuries in 2024, including Eduardo Rodriguez and Merrill Kelly, who made just 10 and 12 starts respectively.

Ace Zac Gallen was not quite up to his usual standards either, and missed time with a hamstring injury. And of course Jordan Montgomery had an extremely poor season before being demoted to the bullpen.

The forecasts predict regression to the mean, which in this case means improvement across the board. The projections see the Diamondbacks accumulating 14.4 pitcher WAR, which ranks 18th according to their chart. While slightly below the league average, that would represent a huge improvement from the 12.4 fWAR they posted in 2024.

It all adds up to 42.7 WAR, which when added to the replacement level wins of 47.5, would total 90.2 wins in 2025. That is the tenth highest total in MLB and fifth highest in the National League. And this is before the Diamondbacks make expected moves to bolster their bullpen and lineup further as outlined by Mike Hazen.

If they do so, the over/under number could start to creep up over 84. Of course other teams will continue to add talent as well, and the D-backs' win projection could drop over the next couple of months. But even taking that into account, considering the 90 win total derived from the Fangraphs Depth Chart, there could be an upside opportunity to take the over bet on the Diamondbacks.

Whether one is confident to do that or not might hinge on the confidence they have in the Fangraphs projections. It should be noted that most sports books pegged the Diamondbacks around 83.5-84 wins heading into the the 2024 season. Meanwhile most projection systems fell in line with the sports books, also expecting the D-backs to win between 84-86 games.