Diamondbacks Take on the Dodgers at Chase Field

It's the first meeting of the two teams since the D-backs swept L.A. in the 2023 NLDS

Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Los Angeles Dodgers / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The last time the Dodgers and Diamondbacks played, Arizona was completing an improbable sweep of the NL West Division behemoths in the National League Division Series. The indelible memories of that momentous occasion will always be strong for the Diamondbacks and their fans. But with the 2024 season already one month old, it's time to move forward.

The Dodgers come into town sitting in their usual place atop the NL West standings with an 18-12 record and a +38 run differential. The D-backs have gotten off to a rough start, languishing in fourth place, 4.5 games back with a 13-16 record. This is despite owning a +29 run differential.

L.A. stunned the baseball world by signing Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700 million contract, with almost all of it deferred. They followed that up by signing another Japanese star, Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million deal. Not finished, they dealt with the Tampa Bay Rays for elite but oft-injured starter Tyler Glasnow.

Other important free agents signed included outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Jason Heyward, infielder Enrique Hernández, and pitchers James Paxton, Joe Kelly, and Daniel Hudson. And of course, they brought Clayton Kershaw back. The future Hall of Famer is recovering from shoulder surgery.

Pitching Matchups

Monday April 29th, 6:40 P.M.

James Paxton, LHP: 20.2 IP, 2-0, 2.61 ERA, 5.84 FIP

Paxton has managed to post a low ERA despite walking 17 batters and striking out just 11. That included a season high eight walks issued in just 3+ inning against the Padres on April 14th. Paxton came into 2024 with a 2.8 BB/9 ratio, so this is certainly not his typical performance. Still throwing a mid 90's fastball with a curveball and cutter, Paxton has never made 30 starts or thrown enough innings to quality for the ERA title.

Tommy Henry, LHP: 24.1 IP, 1-1, 5-55 ERA, 4.58 FIP

Henry had been demoted but was recalled to fill in for the injured Ryne Nelson less than a week later on April 23rd. He responded with his best start of the year going six innings and allowing just one run against the light-hitting Cardinals in a 14-1 victory. Henry has never faced the Dodgers before, but he did face Ohtani on June 29th last year in Anaheim. Ohtani got him for a 493-foot homerun in that game.

Tuesday April 30th, 6:40 P.M.

Landon Knack, RHP: 11 IP, 1-1, 3.27 ERA, 5.27 FIP

Knack is a 26-year-old rookie taken by the Dodgers in the 2nd round of the 2020 draft out of East Tennessee University. This will be his third career major league start. Both of his previous outings came against the Washington Nationals on April 17th and 24th. He went six innings giving up just two runs for the victory the second time around. Knack has a four-pitch mix, a four-seam fastball (92.8 MPH), slider, curveball, and changeup he uses against left-hand batters.

Jordan Montgomery, LHP: 13 IP, 1-1, 2.77 ERA, 3.33 FIP

Montgomery is making just this third start for the Diamondbacks. He was a hard-luck loser in his last outing, going seven innings and allowing three runs for a quality start in a 5-1 loss to the Cardinals. Montgomery's sinker velocity is just 91.5 MPH, down 1.8 MPH from last year. He's been extremely effective spotting his curveball and getting swings and misses with the changeup. Facing the Dodgers will be a truer test to see if he can remain as effective with diminished velocity.

Wednesday, May 1st, 6:40 P.M.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP: 28 IP, 2-1, 3.54 ERA, 2.68 FIP

Blown up for five runs in just one inning in his Opening Day start in Seoul to start the season, Yamamoto has been lights out since. Over his last five outings, 27 IP he has a 2.00 ERA and struck out 35 while walking just five batters.

He's throwing a four seam fastball, a curve and a split finger, with the occasional cutter. The fastball has been averaging 95.3 and topping out in the upper 90's. The split has been near untouchable, as he's given up just three hits on the pitch. The majority of his swing and miss comes on the splitter and curve.

TBA- Projected Zac Gallen, RHP: 32 IP, 3-2, 3.38 ERA, 3.56 FIP

Gallen had to come out of his last start due to a right hamstring cramp. Scheduled to throw a bullpen, if there are no issues both Gallen and Torey Lovullo said he should make his start as scheduled. Gallen's status will be updated later today after we've had a chance to speak to the manager.

Offense

The Dodgers are 4th in MLB scoring 5.27 Runs per game. Mookie Betts is batting .387 with 18 extra base hits, 29 runs, 23 RBI, and an astounding 2.9 WAR already. Ohtani is batting .336 with 14 doubles, a triple, and seven homers. Will Smith is batting .367 and Freddie Freeman has been relatively "quiet" with a .306 average and .861 OPS.

The D-backs have scored 154 runs, averaging 5.31 per game. That is misleading and hides the feast or famine nature of their scoring. 59 of their runs came in just four ballgames. In the other 25 games they've scored just 95 runs for an average of 3.8 R/G. Jake Oliver took a detailed look at this issue earlier this week.

After registering double-digit strikeouts just one time in their first 21 games, the D-backs have struck out 10 times or more five times in their last eight games. Over their previous four games, the D-backs are batting just .160 with two homers and six RBI

Joc Pederson, .(296 BA, .952 OPS), Blaze Alexander (.322 BA, .944 OPS) and Ketel Marte (.307 BA, .879 OPS) have been the team's top hitters. Corbin Carroll is notably absent from this list. The 2023 NL Rookie of the year is in a horrific slump to start the season batting .189 with a .531 OPS. Over his last 10 games Carroll is 4-37 with 15 strikeouts.

Bullpens

L.A. closer Evan Phillips has been a perfect eight for eight in save chances and has a 0.77 ERA. Alex Vesia has a 1.88 ERA and allowed just one of seven inherited runners to score. Despite the efforts of their top two relievers, the Dodgers bullpen ranks 13th in MLB with a 3.75 ERA and 18th with a 4.21 FIP. They rank 16th in WPA, or win percentage added. The weakest part of the team is the middle relief and "B" bullpen.

The Diamondbacks were hoping to get closer Paul Sewald back by this series but he had soreness after a recent bullpen session and the team has hit the pause button on his return. Kevin Ginkel is serving as the interim closer in Sewald's absence and has a 3.00 ERA with five saves in seven chances. He's worked two days in a row, and may not be available for the first game of the series.

As a unit, the D-backs pen ranks 20th with a 4.31 ERA and 15th with a 3.99 FIP. Their -0.66 WPA ranks 26th, however, and they're tied for the second most bullpen "meltdowns" with 22.

Injuries

The Diamondbacks have nine players on the injured list. A detailed breakdown of all nine players' statuses can be found here.

The Dodgers have 11 players on the injured list. In addition to Kershaw Walker Buehler is still working his way back from Tommy John Surgery. Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May both had elbow surgery. Gonsolin is out for the year, but May could possibly return in the second half of 2024. Blake Treinen and Jason Heyward are also among the injured Dodgers and will not play in this series.