All Hands on Deck for D-backs in NLCS Game 7 vs. Phillies

Previewing a win or go home game for the Diamondbacks, as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 7 of the NLCS.

Every team that goes on a deep postseason run has some sort of phrase to rally the team together. For the 2023 Diamondbacks, it's "Embrace the Chaos". Nothing better symbolizes chaos in a postseason series than a Game 7, playing in one of baseball's top environments in Citizens Bank Park. Despite looking outmatched at different parts of the series, they've come back from down 2-0 and 3-2 to force a Game 7 in the National League Championship Series. It will be the franchise's biggest postseason game since they defeated the New York Yankees in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series.

Looking at the historical data of a best for seven series since 1985, a team that forced a Game 7 on the road is 5-4. The D-backs will be playing in their second ever Game 7 in franchise history while the Philadelphia Phillies are in their first despite playing their first games in 1883. Here's what the two managers had to say about this game.

"Everything that we've done in the past, everything that we will do in the future, it doesn't matter" said D-backs manager Torey Lovullo. "What matters right now is the next nine innings, and then you can break that down into the next inning nine times, and then X amount of at-bats and pitches per inning."

Lovullo has never been in a Game 7, but has experience managing that type of game with the 2017 Wild Card Game. This is what he recalls from that game and what made them successful.

"I think we went back to the foundation of who we were and just said let's play our game. We had a really experienced team. They went out there and took care of business."

Starting Pitcher Matchups

Brandon Pfaadt and Ranger Suarez Post Season Stats / Jack Sommers

Brandon Pfaadt is the 13th rookie in MLB history to start a Game 7, the first since Ian Anderson and Dustin May squared off in the 2020 NLCS. In Game 3, he shut down Philadelphia's lineup for 5 2/3 innings with a career-best nine strikeouts. Pfaadt is coming off back-to-back scoreless starts, consisting of 10 innings against the Dodgers and Phillies. In his one road start, he allowed three runs in 2 2/3 innings to the Brewers. Pfaadt utilizes his sinker, sweeper, and changeup combination to attack the strike zone horizontally then utilizes the 4-seamer to get chase up and out of the zone. He'll need to command his fastballs and sweeper at the same level as Game 3.

Ranger Suárez has been an X-factor for the Phillies pitching staff, allowing just one run in three postseason starts. Suárez throws strikes, using his low-90s sinker to get a lot of groundouts early in the count and then resort to his secondary pitches for swings and misses. The D-backs will need to capitalize on the handful of mistakes that the left-hander will make, especially with his fastballs.

Expect a short leash on these pitchers in a Game 7 situation, as both managers will be aggressive in their bullpen usage. See below for the status of each bullpen.

Lineups and Notes

Diamondbacks at Phillies Game 7 NLCS Lineups / Michael McDermott

Scoring first will be key in tonight's game. Arizona is 5-0 this postseason when scoring first and Philadelphia is 6-2. If the D-backs score first and establish an early lead like they did in Game 6 yesterday, that will take the crowd out of the game and make things tougher for the Phillies to come back.

Keeping the Phillies in the yard is also a key point, as teams who have out-homered their opponents are 21-3 this postseason. Philadelphia is 3-0 in the series when they out-homer the D-backs, but 0-3 when they don't. 

Ketel Marte has been the D-backs Most Valuable Player in the NLCS, going 11-for-26 (.423) with three doubles, a triple, a stolen base, three RBI, and two runs scored. His fingerprints have been all over their three wins with a walk-off single in Game 3, scoring the winning run in Game 4, and driving in two key tack-on runs in Game 6. Should Arizona complete the comeback and take the series, he's the slam dunk choice for series MVP.

For Philadelphia, it's a tossup between Kyle Schwarber and Zack Wheeler for the MVP should the Phillies win tonight. Schwarber is 7-for-26 with five home runs and Wheeler has allowed just three runs in 13 innings with two wins. The hitter usually gets the edge in a close race.

Bullpens

In a Game 7 scenario, it's all hands on deck for the bullpen. Game 5 starters Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler are available out of the pen if the situation calls for it. Both teams have gotten a good look at the key relievers this series. With these relievers coming up 3-4 times in the series, fatigue and familiarity becomes a factor.

Here's how it breaks down by number of games.

Arizona Bullpen

• 4 Games: LHP Andrew Saalfrank
• 3 Games: RHP Paul Sewald, RHP Kevin Ginkel, RHP Ryan Thompson, RHP Miguel Castro, LHP Joe Mantiply, RHP Luis Frías
• 2 Games: LHP Kyle Nelson, RHP Slade Cecconi

Philadelphia Bullpen

• 4 Games: RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Jeff Hoffman, RHP Orion Kerkering
• 3 Games: LHP Matt Strahm, LHP Jose Alvarado, RHP Seranthony Dominguez
• 2 Games: LHP Gregory Soto

For starting pitchers, times through the order is rightfully discussed and teams plan around that. However in a series like this, seeing a reliever multiple times in a postseason also has a similar, if not more profound, effect. Since 2019, a reliever's 3rd PA+ against the same hitter in a postseason series yields a .289/.355/.516 slash line with the home run rate jumping from 4.1% to 4.8%. With Citizens Bank Park one of the most homer friendly parks in the major leagues, that bears watching.