Can Zach Davies Rebound Against the Best Offense in Baseball?

Davies has mightily struggled in his past three starts, as he's become too predictable on the mound.

The Diamondbacks (48-32) showed their resiliency in the first game of the series against Tampa Bay Rays (54-28), cruising to an 8-4 victory behind their ace Zac Gallen. They have two chances to pick up a win to take the series against the team with the best record in baseball. They'll face a tough challenge, as they send one of their struggling starters against the Rays' most consistent starter this season.

Pitching Matchup

Since throwing a quality start against the Washington Nationals on June 7th, Zach Davies has allowed 21 runs in just 10 2/3 innings. In all three of those starts, he's allowed at least six runs. Pitching coach Brent Strom believes the best route to fix the 30-year-old right-hander is for him to pitch inside to hitters more so they can't key in on a specific pitch and location.  Torey Lovullo said that Davies has been very coachable and there are no issues with him resisting what he's being asked to do. It's just about execution and moving the ball around the zone. 

Earlier this season, Davies found success with mixing in more four-seamer, curveball, and cutters. That was something that showed up in his start against the Nationals. Recently he's fallen into the trap of being exclusively a sinker-changeup guy, which is his bread-and-butter offerings. The combination of being predictable with pitch mix and location has resulted in him getting hit. It will be interesting to track how Davies goes after hitters in this start.

Zach Eflin signed a three-year, $40 million contract with the Rays this off-season after being used sparingly by Philadelphia in their postseason run. The contract is looking like a massive success in the first year, as the 29-year-old right-hander is having a career year on the mound. While health has been an issue in Eflin's career to date, he has been a sturdy work horse in their rotation. In 14 starts this season, he's thrown 83 1/3 innings with 9.1 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per 9 innings pitched. He's on a short list of pitchers who could be selected for the 2023 All-Star Game.

Eflin attacks hitters with sinkers, cutters, and curveballs, with those three offerings accounting for 92% of his total pitches. The sinker is his most commonly thrown pitch, which has been a very effective ground ball pitch as he enters play with the seventh highest ground ball rate amongst qualified starters at 53.6%. The curveball is his best swing-and-miss pitch, with 38.6% of swings against the pitch coming up empty. It's a pitch he heavily leans upon with two strikes, as nearly 28% of the curveballs he throws in those counts result in strikeouts.

Lineups

MLB.com

Corbin Carroll is on track to potentially start the All-Star game in his hometown of Seattle. The latest balloting update has him in second place in the outfield for Phase 2 voting, with his 30% total just behind Mookie Betts' 34%. If there isn't a seismic shift in the votes in the final 16 hours of voting, Carroll will be the starting center fielder for the National League All-Star lineup. 

Bullpen

The Diamondbacks bullpen is in fairly strong shape, although Scott McGough has been worked a lot lately and threw some warmup pitches in last night's game just two days after a 38-pitch marathon on Sunday. Rays middle reliever Shawn Armstrong threw 40 pitches in two innings against the D-backs last night, so he is likely unavailable to pitch.

Manager Updates from Torey Lovullo

Brandon Pfaadt, who has been called up to thetaxi squad for today, will be activated and start tomorrow's series finale against the Rays.

The decision to push Tommy Henry back to the Angels series this weekend was based on left-right matchups. "We like righty matchups against the Rays, we felt really strongly about that giving us the best chance to win a baseball game. "

Mark Melancon had a couple of setbacks and needed more time off. His recent imaging is showing improvements and he will begin biometric exercises next week. Whereas it was originally expected he could begin throwing by July that timeline has shifted back.  Asked if he could possibly miss the entire season Lovullo hesitated before answering in the affirmative. It depends on how things go the next couple of weeks. 

Merrill Kelly 

Kelly threw out to 90 feet today, but has not yet pitched off a mound.  Lovullo said he spoke to him and that he feels good. status. He's over at Salt River Fields, and will come to the clubhouse tomorrow.  Lovullo confirmed that no procedure was necessary to treat his blood clot, it's being treated conservatively with medication.