D-backs in the Bronx: Series Preview vs. Yankees

Take a look at the upcoming pitching matchups for the D-backs-Yankees series with huge Wild Card playoff implications.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in New York City to take on the New York Yankees for a three-game series this weekend in a series that presents as a must-win situation for the D-backs as they look to maintain their stranglehold on the second Wild Card spot in the National League. There is a lot at stake for the D-backs as a sweep of this series would go a long way to ensuring they make the playoffs as an NL Wild Card team. I wrote about their latest playoff odds here if you would like to the percentages they currently have.

Entering Friday night, the D-backs are 2.0 games up on the Chicago Cubs for the second NL Wild Card spot. They have a record of 81-72. The D-backs are 2 games up on the Miami Marlins who hold a critical tiebreaker. They are 2.5 games up on the Reds who also hold a tiebreaker advantage. The Yankees are battling to stay over .500 as they are 77-76 and have lost three of their last four games. The Yankees are 6-4 over their last ten games. Arizona is 6-4 as well and is on a five-game win streak. New York is 39-38 at home while the D-backs are 38-37 on the road.

This series presents a unique situation for the D-backs as they can increase their own lead on a Wild Card spot without affecting any other races. The Yankees are eight games out of a playoff spot. This could affect their urge to win games compared to Arizona who will be managing as if it's a playoff series. Plus, the D-backs need to add up these wins against the Yankees and then the White Sox since they have a massive series against the Astros next weekend to end their season. The Astros are in first place in the AL West and in a dogfight to maintain their lead in that division.

The Diamondbacks have been playing excellent in September with a record of 12-7 so far. They've averaged 4.53 runs per game over this month. The Yankees have been quite well too, going 12-7 and averaging 3.89 runs per game. That is a low-scoring run amount, but the Yankees have gotten quality pitching from their starters.

Starting Pitching Matchups

Friday, 4:05 P.M. AZ time, Yankee Stadium

aWAR is the average WAR between Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs / Jake Oliver

Luke Weaver has been swinging around to all corners of the MLB world. He started the season with the Reds before going to the Mariners. Now, he's with the Yankees. However, it's been a very difficult season for the former Diamondbacks starter. He made the majority of his starts with the Reds where he struggled immensely. The Mariners tried him out of the bullpen and the results were even worse. Now, he's with the Yankees. He has made just one start in a Yankee uniform.

That start wasn't good as he lasted just four innings and gave up three runs while walking two and striking out seven. He hasn't been effective against either side of the plate. Right-handed hitters have teed off for a .971 OPS against him. Left-handed batters have struck him to the tune of a .877 OPS.

While he spent the majority of his career with the Arizona Diamondbacks after being acquired in the Paul Goldschmidt trade, he's still faced the D-backs a few times. He faced the D-backs earlier this season as a member of the Reds. He lasted just four innings and gave up eight hits, three runs, two walks, and struck out just one batter.

Over his four appearances and three starts against Arizona in his career, he has a 5.29 ERA, 0-1 record, and has pitched 17 innings. During that time, he's given up 19 hits, 10 runs, seven walks, and struck out 13 hitters.

Meanwhile, Brandon Pfaadt has been doing much better of late in his third go-round in the Major Leagues this season. So far this season, he's been much better on the road than at home. He is 0-3 on the road over seven games, and six starts, but has a 5.18 ERA compared to a 6.46 ERA at home. He has thrown 40 innings on the road with 23 runs, 13 home runs, 10 walks, and 32 strikeouts with 37 hits given up. The home run issue continues to plague Pfaadt as he has given up 20 so far in his short career. That could be an issue at Yankee Stadium which has a short right-field fence and has been very homer-friendly in recent years.

Although Brandon Pfaadt had a 6.21 ERA entering September, it's been steadily going down this month. Over his three games and two starts, Pfaadt has pitched 15 innings and given up seven runs and 15 hits. He's walked four and struck out 14 hitters. That is good enough for a 4.20 ERA and 4.99 FIP. His most recent start was on September 15th against the Chicago Cubs. He got his second win that game after pitching 5.1 innings, giving up no runs and striking out six with just one walk.

Saturday, 10:05 A.M. AZ time, Yankee Stadium

aWAR is the average WAR between Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs / Jake Oliver

Carlos Rodon is on the bump for the Yankees. He's still looking to get used to pitching as a Yankee as his results thus far have not been very good. He got a large contract to be their number two starter in the off-season, but it's not worked out so far. He missed much of the season due to injury and didn't make his season debut until July 7th.

Rodon has yet to get comfortable pitching in the Bronx. He has thrown 27.2 innings at home and has a 6.59 ERA with 20 runs allowed. He has struck out just 21 batters and walked 11. He's 1-3 over six starts. He also hasn't been effective against either side of opposing hitters allowing an .822 OPS to right-handed hitters and a .806 OPS to left-handed batters.

He's been a bit better of late over his four starts so far in September. He's thrown 20.1 innings and has a 5.75 ERA, 4.04 FIP, and struck out 27 batters with just five walks. However, three of those starts were on the road. In his lone start at home, he gave up seven runs in 3.2 innings against the Detroit Tigers. His most recent start was a gem against the Pirates when he threw 6.2 innings and struck out 10 batters while giving up three runs.

Rodon has faced the Arizona Diamondbacks four times in his career. Over those four starts, most coming while he was with the Giants, he went 0-2 and had a 5.91 ERA. He pitched just 21.1 innings and gave up 14 hits, 14 runs, three home runs, nine walks, and struck out 35 batters.

The Diamondbacks have yet to announce a starter for Saturday's game. It's possible that the D-backs will have a bullpen game with either Zach Davies or Ryne Nelson serving as the bulk pitcher. This would allow them to avoid having either face the top of the Yankees' lineup more than twice. It will allow them to set up better matchups and make use of their entire pitching staff in a must-win game. It should be noted that Manager Torey Lovullo was previously hesitant to commit to another start for Davies.

Sunday, 10:35 A.M. AZ Time, Yankee Stadium

aWAR is the average WAR between Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs / Jake Oliver

The Diamondbacks haven't announced a starter for Sunday either. This could be because they are debating whether to start Zac Gallen on four days' rest or not. He would be technically available as he would be going on a normal four-day rest. However, he has been struggling of late. They could then opt to give him five days of rest and start him on Monday against the White Sox. This would still allow him to make a start in the Houston Astros' series on Saturday. However, provided they make the playoffs, this start on Saturday could cause him to be unavailable for the first game in the potential Wild Card series.

As for the Yankees, they are sending out Clarke Schmidt. Schmidt is finishing off his first season as a regular member of the Yankees' rotation. Schmidt has been roughly a league-average pitcher. He's been much better at home than on the road this year. He has a 4.14 ERA over 82.2 innings at Yankee Stadium. On the road, he has a 5.27 ERA over 68.1 innings. Although, he's been much more homer-prone in New York. He's given up 15 home runs compared to just eight on the road.

Schmidt has the typical platoon numbers as one would expect. Left-handed hitters have combined for a .871 OPS against him. He's been far superior when he has the platoon advantage, limiting right-handed batters to just a .673 OPS. He's never faced the Arizona Diamondbacks before. This isn't too surprising as the Yankees don't often play Arizona until this year and the years to come. Plus, he used to be a reliever which would limit his chance to pitch against them.

Schmidt has struggled lately in September. Over his three starts in which he went 1-1, he has thrown just 16.2 innings. Over that span, he's given up 16 hits, 11 runs, five walks, and struck out 10 batters. That is good enough for a 5.40 ERA and 5.48 FIP. 

The Bullpen is Rested

The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen should be well-rested following an off-day for this series against the Yankees. They've been used often of late as Manager Lovullo has opted to be quick to pull his starters. However, the bullpen is rewarding the manager's confidence in them by excelling when it matters most. September has been their best month yet in the season. Critical relievers Kevin Ginkel and Paul Sewald have been particularly effective. Sewald is five-for-five in save chances so far in September. There are just nine games left so you know the bullpen will be sparing no effort in a chance to help the team get back to the postseason for the first time since 2017.