Diamondbacks to Face Tough Cubs Lefty Justin Steele

Taking a closer look at how to attack the breakout Cy Young candidate

When the Diamondbacks play the Cubs today at 11:20 A.M. MST, 1:20 CST, they will be trying to do something very few teams have been able to do this year; Beat Justin Steele at Wrigley Field. They'll try to do so behind Merrill Kelly, their second best starting pitcher. 

The Diamondbacks are 74-68, two games back of the  76-66 Cubs for the second Wild Card position in the National League. They are clinging to a narrow 0.5 game lead over the Marlins to stay in the 3rd wild card position. Yesterday Zac Gallen threw a complete game shutout in a 1-0 D-backs victory. In addition to trying to make up ground in the standings, the team would love to be able to help Zac Gallen's Cy Young case. 

Pitching Matchup

Jack Sommers

Merrill Kelly is coming off one of the best starts of his season September 4th against the Rockies, Kelly went seven innings, struck out 12, and allowed just one run on four hits. Unfortunately he was removed from the game for the third straight home outing due to cramping in his right hamstring. Kelly said that he felt the conditions at Chase Field may have been a factor, as it's been hot and humid down on the field during the summer monsoon.  He should have no such problems today at Wrigley Field, as game time temperature is forecast to be 69 degrees with an eight MPH wind blowing in.  D-backs pitchers have held the Cubs to just two runs in the series so far, and Kelly will need to provide more of the same level of run prevention to give his team a chance. 

Justin Steele is in his third season in the majors and has broken out into one of three or four leading contenders for the NL Cy Young award.  With the best won loss record and second lowest ERA in the league, many would argue the  left-hander should be the favorite. The only issue in his stat line is the innings pitched total is lower than some of the other contenders, including Gallen who has 188 innings pitched compared to Steele's 152.  Steele spent two weeks on the injured list in the first half of June due to a forearm strain, but has not skipped a beat since returning June 17th. So far this year Steele has allowed more than three runs just two times, both of those back in May.  

In his most recent outing on September 4th against the Giants Steele tossed eight scoreless innings, striking out 12 while giving up just two hits and two walks. He has a 17 inning scoreless streak dating back to the 4th inning on August 24th. He's been almost unbeatable at Wrigley, going 12-2 with a 2.25 ERA in 16 starts at home.  He's got a reverse platoon split this year, posting a .620 OPS against versus right hand batters, but .748 OPS against left hand batters. He induces an above average ground ball rate and leads the league in home runs allowed per nine innings at 0.7.  

There is a great deal of confusion around what  type of fastball Steele throws. Pitch Info on Fangraphs classifies his fastball as a cutter. But he himself has called it a four seamer, so Baseball Savant classifies it as such. There are some analysts that insist the pitch looks and behaves like a cutter, and visually that appears to be the case. Some may feel it doesn't matter, but if the hitter is gearing up to hit a four seamer and he's actually getting a cutter, it's going to be that much harder to hit. 

Justin Steele, Nasty 93mph Cutting Fastball. ✂️ pic.twitter.com/DjVky6281a

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 31, 2023

Steele is essentially a two pitch pitcher. He throws that fastball, whatever it is, 64% of the time and his slider 33%, mixing in  a very occasional curveball or change up.  The key for the Diamondbacks today will be to try to lay off the cutter early and hope he misses. Only 10 of the 55 runs he's allowed have come in either the first or second inning. Steele generates the 9th highest chase rate (swings out of the zone) on the fastball among all starting pitchers. Being over aggressive early is not the way to attack this pitcher. 

As for his slider, this pitch is hardly an afterthought. In fact it's an elite offering with elite spin rate and coming in at 8.0 inches better than average horizontal movement.  Batters are hitting just .207 on the pitch. If Steele is landing his cutter where he wants it on the edges of the zone and gets batters to swing at it, they'll likely foul it off, miss, or only make  soft contact. Steele then comes in and puts hitters away with the big slider.  A very tough guy to face, the D-backs will need to be patient. If they hack early, they'll likely be shut down. 

Lineups

Jack Sommers

Despite Steele's reverse split, Torey Lovullo is going with his full right handed lineup, as Corbin Carroll is the only left handed bat in the order.  Evan Longoria is just 5-for-30, .167 with 11 strikeouts and no extra base hits since returning from a four week stint on the IL due to a sore back.  He's at DH however, and the team really needs his power bat to get untracked down the stretch. Emmanuel Rivera has only gotten eight plate appearances since being recalled on September 1st, and is just 1-for-7, but he gets the start at 3rd base today.  Rivera will need to hit in his limited opportunities or the team might make a roster  move shortly. 

12 year veteran Yan Gomes is behind the plate for the Cubs. He is having a decent year at the plate batting .271 with a .735 OPS. He's caught 17 of 66 baserunners, for just 26%. The lefty Steele has allowed only six stolen bases in 10 attempts however.  Gomes has caught 15 of Steele's 26 starts and the pitcher has a 1.99 ERA with the veteran catcher behind the dish.