Game #54 Preview: Rockies at Diamondbacks

Torey Lovullo believes leadoff hitter Pavin Smith will come around soon.

The Diamondbacks host the Rockies on Memorial Day at 1:10 P.M. MST.  Arizona is 30-23 and in first place in the NL Wild Card and 1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The Rockies are 24-30, in last place in the NL West, but are 16-10 for the month of May. 

Pitching Matchup

Karl Kaufman, 0-2, 9.35 ERA is making his third major league start. Kaufman was teammates with D-backs left-hander Tommy Henry and both were both in the rotation on the 2019 Michigan team that nearly upset Vanderbilt in the College World Series final.  Asked about Kaufman and how well they know each other Henry said, "yeah we sure do. We were roommates at Michigan, lived in the dorms together for a full year, played travel ball together growing up for gosh...maybe six years!, summer ball in college...at times it felt like we couldn't get away from each other. We know each other too well, but it will be fun to see him pitch tonight"

Kaufman has shown a five pitch mix so far in his brief time in the majors, throwing both a sinker and four seam,  both around 90 MPH on average. He uses a change up against lefties and a slider against right hand batters. He'll also throw an occasional cutter.

Ryne Nelson is  1-2 with a 5.02 ERA in 10 starts, 52 innings this year. Nelson is on an upswing as his last two starts were his best of the season so far going 11.1 innings giving up just four hits and one run.  Nelson's fielding independent pitching is half a run lower than his ERA, sporting a 4.52 FIP.  

Lineups

Ketel Marte is getting a scheduled day off, but is available off the bench. Torey Lovullo said during the pre game press conference that he's well aware of Marte's  27 consecutive game on base streak, but if the opportunity to win the game late arises he won't hesitate to use him as a pinch hitter.

Lovullo  was asked what he's seen in Pavin Smith this year

 "He's had some big hits, he can barrel up baseballs, I see a good finish to the swing. Maybe inconsistent results but I still believe in his ability to impact a game and impact the baseball from an offensive standpoint.......I'm asking a lot of him. He's leading off against right-handed pitching. That's more a product of him being able to see balls and strikes, get good pitches to hit, and find himself getting on base. It hasn't happened the way we know it can. But he's in a good spot, I think the process is right"

While the success has not been there for Smith so far this year, he has had success in the past in the leadoff spot. Here is the track record dating back to 2021

Baseball Reference

Smith was red hot in his first 12 games after getting called up this year, going 11-31, .355 with two homers and 11 RBI. He's slumped badly since April 25th however, going 12 for 79, .152 with two homers and 7 RBI.  Both those homers in this stretch occurred at key moments in the game, but his season batting line is now down to .209/.310/.355 in 126 plate appearance.  Unfortunately the "expected" statistics available on Baseball Savant's website do not support Lovullo's statement that Smith has been better than results, as his xBA is .219 and xSlug is .365,  barely above his actual numbers. 

Catcher Elias Diaz is having a career year for for the Rockies bating .333 with six homers and 27 RBI.  Ryan McMahon, Charlie Blackmon, and Randall Grichuk all had a hot home stand for the Rockies last week.  Blackmon is not in the lineup tonight however. 

Notes:

Carson Kelly has already gotten about 15 at bats in extended spring training and will catch his first game today. If all goes well he will be sent out to a minor league affiliate later this week, perhaps by Thursday, to continue his rehab from a fractured forearm. 

Kyle Lewis continues to build up strength rehabbing in Triple-A Reno. He homered twice in six at bats in his most recent game. It does not appear his return to MLB action is imminent however.

Joe Mantiply is recovering from his hamstring injury and is expected to also go out on a rehab assignment this week.