Game Preview#55: Rockies at Diamondbacks

Zac Gallen aims to get back in the win column

The Diamondbacks (31-23)  play the Rockies (24-31) at Chase Field tonight, first pitch is 6:40 P.M.  This is the second of a four game series. The D-backs took the opener last night by a score of 7-5. It was the team's 16th comeback win, which is tied for the most in the National League. The D-backs have the 3rd best record in the NL and are the current top Wild Card seed. They're 1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The Rockies are in last place in the division but still just 4.5 games back of the Giants and Marlins for one of the remaining Wild Card slots in the tightly bunched NL. 

Lineups

Jack Sommers

Missing a couple of their best hitters, the Rockies lineup looks a lot different. Charlie Blackmon is on the bereavement list and is not eligible to return until Thursday.  C.J. Cron is on the injured list with back spasms and will not be back for this series.  Gallen will need to cool the red hot Ryan McMahon who fell just a double shy of the cycle last night. He's homered in four straight games and over his last five games is 12 for 20, .600 with 12 RBI. 

Ketel Marte is back in the lineup after a routine day off according to Torey Lovullo. He has an on base streak of 27 consecutive games and has hit .295/.369/.486, .855 OPS with five homers, 12 walks and two HBP during that span. The D-backs are going with their right handed lineup today, including Emmanuel Rivera at third base, Evan Longoria at DH, and Nick Ahmed at shortstop. 

Pitching Matchup

Zac Gallen is on the mound for the D-backs tonight, and they always like their chances to pick up a win when their Ace is out there. That's been elusive lately however. Two starts ago Gallen had the worst start of his career, giving up eight runs to the Pirates on May 19th. Then on May 24th against Philadelphia he threw five shutout innings before failing to get out of the 6th inning, giving up two runs. The bats went silent and the bullpen gave up the lead, and eventually were walked off in extra innings in a crushing loss.  Gallen said at the time that's a game they have to win, and he'll be looking to bounce back tonight. 

In 12 career starts against the Rockies Gallen is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA. Six of those games have come at Chase Field where he's posted a 2.91 ERA vs against the Rockies.  C.J. Cron is on the injured list and Charlie Blackmon is on the Bereavement list. A handful of the Rockies hitters in tonight's lineup have faced Gallen

Rockies Hitters in May 30th lineup track record vs. Zac Gallen / Baseball Reference

Gallen's ERA is 30% better than Kyle Freeland's, but his park adjusted ERA,  or ERA+ is just 11% better than the Rockies left hander.  Such is the power of park adjusted statistics such as the ones we discussed just prior to this series starting. 

Freeland has been an above average pitcher throughout his career with the exception of just one season, 2019. If one were to just look at his career ERA of 4.24 they might not draw that conclusion. But once you take Coors Field inflated run environment into account he has a 115 career ERA+, meaning he has been roughly 15% better than league average.

Never a hard thrower, he's lost a couple ticks off his sinker and four seam fastballs, as they now average just shy of 89 MPH. He throws a slider, curveball and changeup, featuring a true five pitch mix.  Freeland has given his team a chance to win in nine of his 11 starts, but had two terrible starts in which he gave up 17 of the 30 runs he's allowed this year. 

Freeland has made 18 starts against the D-backs in his career which started in 2017. That includes eight starts in Chase Field where he is 2-3 with a 4.83 ERA. Ketel Marte, Evan Longoria, Christian Walker and Nick Ahmed have the most head to head experience against him among hitters in the D-backs lineup tonight.

Dbacks hitters in May 30th lineup track record against Kyle Freeland / Baseball Reference

 Bullpens

Thanks to Drey Jameson going 3.2 innings last night, most of the bullpen had the night off. Andrew Chafin came in to retire the last batter, needing six pitches.  He threw 16 pitches Sunday, so Torey Lovullo may try to stay away from him.  Miguel Castro and Kyle Nelson both worked Saturday and Sunday, and while they should be available, if they had to go tonight that would be three outings in four days.  

Despite a short  four inning outing from his starter yesterday, Bud Black only had to use two relievers to get through the last four. Matt Carasiti threw 36 pitches and Brad Hand threw 25.  Peter Lambert threw 43 pitches on Saturday. The rest of the Rockies pen should be available.