Is Tommy Henry Pitching for His Rotation Spot?

The Diamondbacks visit Philadelphia to face Zack Wheeler and the Phillies.

The Diamondbacks and Phillies start a three game series in Philadelphia this afternoon at 3:40 P.M. Arizona Time, 6:40 P.M. EST.  The D-backs are coming off a series win against the Pirates and are a season-high seven games over .500 with a 27-20 record.  They are 2.5 games up in the Wild Card standings and just 1.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.  

The Phillies snapped a five-game losing streak over the weekend, taking two straight games from the Cubs on Saturday and Sunday to get their record to 22-24.   They're 2.0 games back of the Mets for the 3rd Wild Card spot and already 7.0 games back of the Braves in the NL East.

Pitching Matchup

Tommy Henry, 1-1, 5.00 ERA, 5.70 FIP, may possibly be pitching to keep his rotation spot. As reported earlier today, with Zach Davies coming back soon, the D-backs will be making a roster move to move a starter back to Triple-A Reno. Henry is among three young starters in the rotation, along with Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt that have been getting mixed results.

Henry's throws a 90 MPH four-seam fastball with a changeup, curveball, and slider. His fastball is very hittable, so he has to land his breaking pitches with regularity to keep hitters from just hunting the four seamer. When he's able to do that he gets quick outs, (3.47 Pitches per PA) and can get deeper into games, as evidenced by his two quality starts. But he's struck out just 13 while walking 12 in 27 innings, so even this modest success may not be sustainable unless that improves.  He lasted just 4.2 IP against the A's last week giving up four runs in a no decision.  Another poor start today could result in Henry being demoted when Davies is called up.

Zack Wheeler, 3-3, 4.06 ERA, 2.41 FIP, has not been quite as dominant as he's been the previous three seasons. But looking at his FIP, and peripherals such as his 4.69 K/BB ratio and just two homers allowed, it's evident he's pitched into some bad luck.  Indeed his .333 BABIP against, (Batting average on balls in play, i.e. non homers) is unusually high. He hasn't given up any of his high 90's fastball heat, and the spin rate on his slider has gone up. He's also added a sweeper. 

Wheeler is coming off a loss to the Giants on May 16th in which he allowed nine hits and four runs in six innings despite walking just one and striking out eight. Only one of the nine hits was an extra base hit, and that was pop up that fell in.  Six of the nine hits had lower than 90 MPH exit velocity. That's typical of the way it's gone for him when things go wrong.  In other words, ignore his ERA and W-L record. He's still the same guy that dominated the D-backs on June 11th of last year when the threw six shutout innings allowing just two hits and striking out eight. 

Lineups

MLB.com

Pavin Smith is back in the leadoff spot and DH for the second straight game. He went just 1-5, but had a key RBI in the game.  Ketel Marte is 3-8 with a homer against Wheeler, but all of the damage came back in 2019.  Similarly, Christian Walker is 6-11 with a homer vs. the Phillies starter, but most of that came in 2019 as well. 

Bryce Harper is hitting .306 with two homers and six RBI in 16 games since coming back from Tommy John surgery. He started out hot, but he's cooled a bit over the last week.  Second baseman Bryson Stott is the hottest Phillies batter at the moment, going 7-22 (.318) with two homers in the last week.

The Phillies have one of the worst team defense ratings every year, and 2023 has been no exception as they rank 27th in defensive runs saved, (-16).  

Bullpens:

The Phillies have Craig Kimbrel closing and it's been an adventure as he carries a 6.35 ERA, with four homers and 10 walks allowed in 17 innings. Their team bullpen ERA of ranks 20th in MLB, compared to the D-backs 4.39 reliever ERA, which is 23rd.  Both teams have gotten better bullpen work in May, 3.72 ERA for Philadelphia and 4.09 for Arizona.  The D-backs have been using a committee approach, based on matchups, but most of the saves have gone to either Andrew Chafin or Miguel Castro.  Both relievers have 12 save situations.  Chafin has six saves, four holds, and two blown saves.  Castro has four saves, seven holds, and one blown save.