Ryne Nelson Searching For More Consistency In His Starts
The Diamondbacks (44-29) landed a haymaker on the Brewers (37-35) last night, ambushing their ace Corbin Burnes for six runs in the first inning then cruising to a 9-1 win. They'll have an opportunity to take the series tonight, with first pitch at American Family Field at 5:10 PM MST.
The team sits 15 games over .500 despite getting very little production from their final three spots of the rotation. In those starts the team is 24-19, including a 6-8 record with Ryne Nelson on the mound. Nelson will toe the mound for the D-backs.
Pitching Matchups
Jack Sommers
Finding consistency and pitching deep into games have been an issue for the rookie right-hander. Four times he's failed to complete the fifth inning. In all three starts in which he has gone six innings, Nelson has recorded a quality start.
One problem area has been his inability to finish off hitters. Nelson has thrown 394 pitches in a two-strike count, but only has 46 strikeouts on the season. That is a put-away rate of just 11.7%. All five pitches in his arsenal have a put-away below 15%, so the problem goes beyond just pitch mix. Execution of each pitch hasn't been as sharp as he showed last season, with the inability to land pitches around and in the strike zone with his cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball.
The lack of strikeouts is exacerbated by Nelson's inability to limit loud contact. His average exit velocity, hard-hit, and barrel rate ranks in the 10th, 26th, and 21st percentile amongst pitchers according to Statcast. That has resulted in some very frustrating outings and a 5.30 ERA in 14 starts.
Rea was originally picked up by the Brewers in 2021, but had bounced up and down from Triple-A over the past two seasons. In 12 appearances, 11 starts, he's pitched to a 4.71 ERA (91 ERA+) with a 52/22 strikeout to walk ratio in 57 1/3 innings. Rea has been pitching well of late, with a 4.50 ERA and a 34/12 strikeout to walk ratio in his past seven starts. He faced the D-backs once, all the way back in 2016 when he was a member of the San Diego Padres.
Lineups
Jack Sommers
Perdomo will be the team's leadoff hitter for the foreseeable future. In six starts batting in the top spot in the lineup, he's hitting .435 with five walks and a .536 on-base percentage. With their 2-5 hitters each making their own push for the All-Star game, he gives them an opportunity to drive in runs.
Center fielder Alek Thomas made a triumphant return to the big leagues yesterday. He went 2-for-4 with a home run and scored twice. His home run capped the six-run first inning.
Milwaukee is batting their two hottest hitters at the plate in the first and second spot in the order. Christian Yelich is batting .429 over the last seven days with four doubles, a triple, and a home run while William Contreras is batting .364 with a double and a triple.
Bullpen
Andrew Chafin rolled his ankle shagging balls during batting practice today. He was scheduled to throw a bullpen today, and if all feels good he should be ok to pitch tonight. Other than that, Arizona's bullpen should be at full strength for tonight's game. Miguel Castro and Joe Mantiply threw nine and 10 pitches respectively last night. With Nelson's poor track record of pitching deep into starts, they will likely need to piece together the final 12-15 outs of the game. The Brewers bullpen should only be down Adrian Houser, who pitched the final four innings of last night's game.
