How Can the Diamondbacks Extend Gabriel Moreno?

A deep dive into what it would take for the D-backs to ink their Gold Glove catcher to an extension

May 4, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno (14) catches a pop up against the San Diego Padres during the sixth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

For a team like the Arizona Diamondbacks, payroll limitations can severely hinder their ability to build and add high-impact pieces to the team, especially in free agency.

One way to get ahead of this limitation however is to sign contract extensions to key players early enough in their careers (even prior to arbitration), thus controlling costs and giving the team a chance to retain their best talent through at least some of the player's free agent years.

They've done this successfully in recent years under Mike Hazen, first with Ketel Marte, and then at the beginning of 2023 with Corbin Carroll. During the winter meetings in Dallas earlier this month, I asked Hazen if he was looking at extensions for some of his younger players.

Hazen indicated that they have extension talks with players every year, but he also seemed to be hinting that there might not be any such deals coming in the short term. Below were his full comments on the topic.

"We'd love to sign extensions.  But you don't always get that opportunity. It's a very individualistic situation on what the player wants and what may be available and is there a meeting of the minds on where we see the value and what is security worth versus what a player is going to get in either arbitration or in the free agent market eventually."

"And as they get closer, it just – it's easier for them to see 'I'll get there and that I'm good, that I'm a good player,' and it becomes harder for us."

Looking over the Diamondbacks roster for extension candidates, there actually do not seem to be that many. Players that are just a year or two away from free agency will want to test the market. The window to extend a player such as Zac Gallen has long since passed for example. So who might the D-backs try to extend?

Gabriel Moreno is the first name that usually comes up in these conversations. Moreno will be 25 years old in 2025, and is not arbitration eligible until 2026. He will be a 29-year-old free agent in 2029 if not extended.

On some levels Moreno would seem to be the ideal candidate. He's already won a Gold Glove in 2023, and his defense, especially his throwing, is outstanding. He can hit too, with a career slash line of .280/.347/.393 in 804 plate appearances, which is good for a 105 OPS+, or about 5% better than league average.

There is the thought there might be some more power yet to come, but even without the home run power, he's been worth approximately 6 aWAR over the last two seasons (the average of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs WAR).

A three WAR catcher is extremely valuable. The question is how deep into his career can Moreno maintain this level of production.

Moreno has already dealt with a number of injuries over the last couple of years. He missed three weeks with a left, non-throwing shoulder injury in 2023. That was followed by two separate injured list stints totaling 50 days in 2024, first with a sprained thumb, then with a groin injury. There have been numerous other scares and periods where he was forced to play banged up.

Such is the life of a catcher. In fact due to the wear and tear of the position, most catchers tend to decline earlier than other position players, thus increasing the risk for the team to extend him beyond 2028. Even a stud like J.T. Realmuto has seen some decline over the last couple of years in his age 32 and 33 seasons.

An ideal extension for the Diamondbacks would probably be one in which they secure Moreno's services through the first two years of free agency in 2029-2030, with a team option for 2031. In order to get control of those extra three seasons, they are going to have to give something to Moreno.

That must comes in the form of payment over his expected earnings for the next four seasons before free agency, plus a large enough guarantee for 2029-2030 to make him want to sign.

It's not easy to find good comparables for Moreno to guide us. The aforementioned Realmuto had produced 20 WAR by his age 29 season. He signed a five year, $115 million deal covering his age 30-34 seasons. But he was and continued to be the most durable catcher in the league, catching more games than anyone else while performing at an extremely high level.

Willson Contreras signed a five year, $87.5 million free agent contract with the St. Louis Cardinals starting in his age 31 season in 2023. But he spent significant time in the DH slot the last two years, and the Cardinals are now moving him to first base permanently. Contreras had a 119 OPS+ and 117 career homers at the time he signed.

Glove first catcher Christian Vasquez received a three year, $30 million contract from the Minnesota Twins starting for his age 32 season in 2023. He was just a .261 hitter with a .695 OPS at the time of his signing, and the last two years his bat has fallen off the table.

Considering all factors, there are no easy comps for Moreno. But the table below is one proposal that might be a good middle ground. This would guarantee Moreno $60 million through his age 31 season. That includes $25 million, including signing bonus, through his arbitration years. That's at least $5 million to possibly $10 million more than he would earn just going through the arbitration process.

2031 would be an option year for the Diamondbacks, worth $16 million if exercised, or a three million dollar buyout. In this way Moreno is also guaranteed to earn at least $35 million for what would be his first two years of free agency in 2029-30.

Gabriel Moreno Contract Extension Proposal / Jack Sommers

While these numbers might be on the lower side of what Moreno might want, or lower than some of the above mentioned others, that comes as a function of the amount of games caught. One way to address this would be to implement escalators in the deal, if possible, in the event that Moreno were to stay healthy and catch more games.

The proposal above could give Moreno enough security and earnings to offset the possible larger payday should he make to free agency without suffering decline due to wear and tear. For the Diamondbacks there is the opportunity for significant upside along with moderate risk.

But as Mike Hazen, it's very much an individual decision for each player. Moreno is still far enough away from free agency that such a proposal could very well entice him to sign however.