Betting Sites See Diamondbacks as Wild Card Team

Mainstream betting sites don't expect heavy improvement for the reigning NL champions.

The D-backs are coming off their best record since a 2019 season that saw 85 wins. Although hitting some major bumps in the road, they spent a portion of 2023 atop the NL West and ended with 84 wins, en route to a magical postseason journey that ended in the World Series.

Ahead of 2024, five mainstream betting sites have their over/under win totals for Arizona set around the same number as their 2023 season. 

Bet365, Caesar's and BetMGM all have the D-backs over/under at 84.5 wins, whereas FanDuel and DraftKings have it set a game lower at 83.5.

These totals average out to 84.1, a near exact repeat of the 84-78 record that brought them all the way to the World Series, despite their major offseason additions such as LHP Eduardo Rodríguez, DH Joc Pederson and 3B Eugenio Suárez.

The NL Picture

Jack Sommers

These projected totals thrust Arizona into the middle of another heated National League environment, taking the second Wild Card spot behind a 90-win Philadelphia Phillies and just barely ahead of the Chicago Cubs, whose average total sits just 0.3 below the snakes.

These sites expect the NL Wild Card race to be another tight one with six teams all within fewer than three games of a wild card spot. The D-backs, Cubs, Reds, Mets, Giants and Padres are all projected around the 81-84 win range, which would set the NL up for another wired playoff push in the final weeks of the regular season in 2024.

The D-backs would assume the No. 5 seed in such a scenario, forcing them to travel to Philadelphia for a Wild Card series and ending up in Los Angeles for the second straight NLDS should they take down the Phillies again.

The D-backs' NL West rival Los Angeles Dodgers, following their monstrous billion-dollar off-season, set an astonishing average win total just above 104 wins and taking the number one seed. Unsurprisingly, the Atlanta Braves follow in tow in the two seed with 101.5 wins.

Notably, the St. Louis Cardinals are primed for a bounce-back according to these sites. They're projected to sit around 85 wins, and take home the title in a weak NL Central, following a massive drop for the Milwaukee Brewers, whose total tanked down to around 75.5 following the loss of ace RHP Corbin Burnes.

The AL Picture

Jack Sommers

The American League sees a much tighter spread of win totals, with no division winner expected to eclipse 94 wins, but see their Wild Card teams with significantly better records than their NL counterparts.

The Yankees are expected to be the number one seed, with around 93.5 wins. The Astros follow them, one win behind, while another weak Central Division sees an 85-86 win Twins taking the title.

The other 2023 World Series team, the reigning champion Texas Rangers are also given a bit of a short stick, with their over/under average sitting just below their previous win total at 89.6, taking the second AL Wild Card slot to match their former World Series opponent D-backs.

The lowest win total for an AL playoff team comes from the Blue Jays, who average out to about 87 wins in the six seed, three full wins above the D-backs, with the Seattle Mariners hot on their heels, projected at an average 86.6 wins. 

Summary

The D-backs aren't being touted as a lock for anything past a Wild Card team. An 84.1 average over/under might seem a bit low, considering what they were able to do with so many glaring holes in the roster. General manager Mike Hazen has handled these holes well, making major additions at each position of need, yet the win totals don't expect this to change a lot for Arizona. 

Anything can happen over the course of a marathon 162-game season, and the snakes certainly weren't expected to reach 84 wins in 2023, but if all goes according to Arizona's offseason plans, it could be wise to start taking the overs on the reigning NL champs for next season.