Cardinals and Diamondbacks Series Pitching Matchups

Merrill Kelly is expected to make his return from the IL this week
Cardinals and Diamondbacks Series Pitching Matchups
Cardinals and Diamondbacks Series Pitching Matchups /

The St. Louis Cardinals come to Chase Field this week for a three game series against the Diamondbacks starting tonight. The Diamondbacks (54-46) are reeling, coming off a sweep at the hands of the Cincinnati Reds to conclude a 2-7 road trip.  They are clinging to a playoff spot with a 0.5 game lead in the tightly bunched  NL Wild Card standings

The Cardinals had been on a six game winning streak prior to losing the final three games of a four games series against the Cubs in Chicago.  The Cardinals are having a down season, with a record of just 44-56. They're 11 games back in the NL Central and 10 games behind in the NL Wild Card. As reported by  Patrick McAvoy of Inside the Cardinals their General Manager has already indicated that any trade deadline moves will be made with an eye towards 2024. That said don't expect to the Cardinals to blow up their roster and trade away all their stars. 

As Mark Grace often says, "It's not who you play, it's when you play them". While the D-backs have had a much better season than St. Louis overall, the past several weeks have seen the team head into a deep tailspin while the Cardinals have played much better. There should be no assumption that this is a soft spot in the schedule. 

Team

Last 10 Games

Last 20 Games

St. Louis Cardinals

6-4

11-9

Arizona Diamondbacks

2-8

6-14

Pitching Matchups

Monday, July 24th, 6:40 P.M.

Adam Wainwright and Ryne Nelson Pitching Stats
Jack Sommers

Adam Wainwright had had an illustrious 18 year career that includes 198 career wins, three all star appearances, and a world series ring. But at 41 years old he's seen better days as evidenced by his season numbers above. He had been holding his own through June 17th, going 3-1 with a 5.56 ERA. But over his previous three outings he's only managed to record 24 outs while giving up 24 hits and 20 runs. He ended up on the injured list with a shoulder strain earlier in the month, and is making his first start since July 4th. 

It's still a sinker, curve, and cutter mix for Wainwright, but at 87 MPH the sinker must be located perfectly to allow him to get to his legendary curve. None of it's working this year, as he's given up 84 hits in 52 innings. If the D-backs are going to break out of their hitting slump, this is an opportunity. 

Ryne Nelson is coming off an impressive outing, holding the powerful Atlanta Braves to just two runs on three hits over seven innings on July 19th. It was the third time in his last five starts he's lasted seven innings or more.  Nelson now needs to figure out how to pitch better at home. He's 2-4 with an 8.08 ERA at Chase Field and 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA on the road. 

Tuesday July 25th, 6:40 P.M.

Steven Matz and Merrill Kelly pitching stats through July 23rd
Jack Sommers

Steven Matz was sent to the bullpen after starting the year 0-6 with a 5.72 ERA over his first 10 starts. It seems to have helped get him straightened out. He made eight relief appearances between May 29th-July 5th pitching to a 2.81 ERA with a 2.72 FIP, walking five and striking out 15 in 16 innings of relief work.  Since returning to the rotation he's made three starts, two of them  good including his most recent outing of five innings, one run ball in a 7-2 victory over the Cubs July 20th.

Matz has a three pitch mix, a sinker, which he uses 56% of the time  and averages 94 MPH. His primary weapon for getting outs and swing and miss against right hand batters is his changeup, which he throws 27% of the time. The pitch has not been as effective as years past for him in getting soft contact however. He throws a curveball to left hand batters when not going with the sinker.  Matz has a 47% ground ball percentage, right around his career average and a bit higher than league average 43%

Merrill Kelly should be making his much anticipated return to the D-back rotation after missing a month due to a blood clot in his left calf. Kelly had been having an all star caliber season to that point, matching Zac Gallen in wins and ERA.  While not named to the All Star team, he probably should have been given that honor.

Kelly has been throwing and keeping his arm strength arm since the beginning of his injured list stint. Most recently he has been throwing rehab games in the Arizona Complex League on July 15th and July 20th, and should be stretched out enough for a normal outing. That said if he has any long innings expect Torey Lovullo to be cautious with him. 

Wednesday, July 26th, 12:40 P.M.

Jack Flaherty and Zac Gallen pitching stats through July 23
Jack Sommers

Jack Flaherty last faced the Diamondbacks on April 17th in St. Louis, taking the loss while giving up four runs in six innings. He's had an up and down season, but his ERA is inflated somewhat by three bad starts. He's only failed to pitch into the fifth inning one time in 19 starts and given up three runs or fewer in 13 of them. He gives his team a chance to win the vast majority of the time. 

Plagued by walks earlier in the year, over his last five outings he's issued just nine free passes while striking out 27 in 31 innings. He's 4-1 with a 3.77 ERA since June 19th.

Zac Gallen will be back home in the friendly confines of Chase Field.  He's 9-0 with a 1.48 ERA in 10 home starts but 2-4 with a 4.97 ERA in 11 road starts. He had a no decision in his last start on July 20th, going seven innings and giving up three runs to Atlanta in a game he left in line for the win. The D-backs eventually lost 7-5.

Gallen will hope to limit the longball, which has been a problem of late. Over his first 12 starts he allowed just two homers, both coming in his second start of the year. He then recorded  10 straight starts without allowing a homer.  Over his last nine starts dating back to June 4th he's allowed 10 homers and had only one homer less start in this stretch.


Published
Jack Sommers
JACK SOMMERS

Jack Sommers is the Publisher for Arizona Diamondbacks ON SI. Formerly a baseball operations department analyst for the D-backs, Jack also covered the team as a credentialed beat writer for SB Nation and has written for MLB.com and The Associated Press. Follow Jack on Twitter @shoewizard59