Diamondbacks at Angels Series Preview

D-backs pitching will hope to contain the red hot Shohei Ohtani

The Diamondbacks are in Anaheim this weekend for a three game series against the Los Angeles Angels who are led by Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout.  

Records and Trends

The D-backs are 48-34, and hold a 2.0 game lead over the Dodgers and 2.5 games over the Giants in the NL West.  After reeling off a six game win streak from June 6th to 12th they got to 41-25, 16 games over .500. Since then however they're just 7-9 while facing some stiffer competition. The D-backs are just 24-20 at home, but have the second best road record in the NL at 24-14.

The Angels are 44-39, in third place in the AL West, 6.0 games behind the Rangers, but just 1.5 games out of an AL Wild Card spot. They've lost 6 of their last nine however and are just 11-21 against teams over .500

These are two fairly evenly matched teams, as the D-backs have a +34 run differential to the Angels +36, but they've gotten there very different ways. 

Pitching Matchups

Friday, June 30th,  6:38 P.M. PST  (Apple TV+ Broadcast)

Jack Sommers

Tommy Henry's last start was eight days ago, when he went 6.2 innings against the Nationals giving up just one run in a win. He had been on the path to solidifying a rotation spot and with the injury to Merrill Kelly he's suddenly being depended on to be one of the more dependable options in the D-backs rotation.

Griffin Canning threw six shutout innings against the Rockies in a game the Angels scored 25 runs, 24 of which came with Canning still in the game. That will skew his seasonal run support numbers. Canning missed a year and half with a stress fracture in his back, but the oft injured starter 27 year old is putting together a solid season. 

Saturday, July 1, 7:07 P.M. PST

Jack Sommers

Ryne Nelson is coming off his best game of the year last Sunday against the Giants, going seven innings and allowing just one run.  He's been trending in the right direction with more swing and miss and better command. Nelson has been solid on the road this season, with a 3.07 ERA and a 2.92 strikeout to walk ratio compared to a 7.09 ERA and a 1.44 K/BB ratio. In his last four road starts, he's allowed just five runs in 23.2 innings with 20 strikeouts and four walks.

Tyler Anderson signed a three-year, $39 million contract with the Angels during the off season, but has been somewhat of a disappointment. His BB/9 rate of 4.0 is well above the career rate of 2.5/9 he came in with. He's only walked five in his last three starts however so may be on the verge of turning his season around.  This will be his 17th start against the D-backs in his eight year  career. He is 6-4 with a 4.50 against Arizona.  Ketel Marte and Nick Ahmed have the best numbers on the D-backs against him, but most of that came before 2021. 

Sunday, July 2nd, 1:07 P.M. PST

Jack Sommers

Zac Gallen continues to be one of the leading contenders for the NL Cy Young award and is almost certain to be named to the all star team.  He has a 5.00 ERA on the road compared to 1.50 at home, but in his most recent road start on June 21st he gave up just one run in seven innings to the Brewers.

Reid Detmers has pitched much better than his won loss record this year. In his last four starts he's given up just three runs in 25.2 innings, but has just a win and three no decisions to show for it.  He's averaged just 3.79 run support per game for a team that scores 5.00 runs a game.  

Angels Offense: 5.00 R/G, 6th in MLB, 113 OPS+, 4th in MLB

The D-backs won't have to face Ohtani on the mound this series, but facing him at the plate is just as daunting. He leads all of MLB in homers (29), RBI (66), Slugging, (.666) and OPS (1.057).   He is on a seven-game hitting streaking during which he's gone 14-30, .467 with five homers. Teammate Mike Trout is not having the type of season we are accustomed to seeing from him, batting just .260 on the year. But he has 17 homers and an .858 OPS. He's also been very hot over his last six games, going 8-21, .381 with a double, a triple, and two homers. 

Brandon Drury is having a hot June and overall solid season, batting .277/.322/.500, 122 OPS+ with 14 homers and 45 RBI. He was signed to a two year, $17 million contract during the off season coming off a career year last year. 

The Angels have had a slew of injuries, but recently picked up two veteran infielders to shore up their lineup. Former Diamondback Eduardo Escobar was acquired from the Mets on June 24th, and Mike Moustakas came over from the Rockies on June 25th.  Both have hit the ground running with their new team, with Escobar going 6-16, .375 and a triple and Moustakas is 4-13, .308 with a home since the trade. 

D-backs Offense:  5.11 R/G, 5th in MLB,  110 OPS+, 5th in MLB

Corbin Carroll is having a tremendous rookie season, batting .290/.366/.559 with 17 homers, 24 stolen bases, and 60 runs scored. He was just selected to start in the All Star game via fan voting. He is currently listed as day to day with a sore shoulder however.  Ketel Marte is also having an all star worthy season .291/.371/.517, with 15 homers, and 44 RBI to go with 60 runs scored. He's reached base in 52 of his last 53 games.  Christian Walker is batting .281 with 25 doubles and 16 homers and leads the team in RBI with 54.

Geraldo Perdomo was inserted into the leadoff spot recently after a hot start to the season. For the year he's batting .291 with a .392 OBP. In 14 games atop the order he's been even better, batting .321 with a .400 OBP.  He leads the team in pitches per PA with 4.27.  Jake McCarthy got off to a terrible start to the year, and got optioned to Reno in late April. Since coming back May 26th he's hit .317 with a .369 OBP and has 15 steals with just one caught. 

The D-backs are third in MLB in team stolen bases with 81, and second in SB% having been successful 87% of the time.  

Bullpens

Carlos Estevez has come out of nowhere to become one of the best closers in MLB this year, with 20 saves without blowing even one yet while sporting a 1.91 ERA.  Prior to 2023 he had 25 career saves and a 4.59 ERA in six years with the Rockies.  It's a high 90's fastball and slider combo.  The Angels 3.69 bullpen ERA ranks 8th in MLB. 

The D-backs bullpen by committee approach has worked at times, but also has been challenged. Each of Andrew Chafin (3.00 ERA, 8 saves), Miguel Castro (3.34 ERA, 7 saves), and Scott McGough (3.00 ERA, 6 saves) have gone on good stretches where it looked like they would take over the role as primary closer only to then falter for a bit and cede to one of the others.  

Most recently it was McGough's turn. After a six week run of not allowing an earned run he blew a two-run save opportunity Wednesday night allowing three runs. He has an 0-6 record.  As much as Torey Lovullo gives lip service to the front office directive to mix and match and employ this committee, one gets the sense he would much prefer to have a defined and reliable closer for the 9th inning.