Diamondbacks at Blue Jays Series Pitching Matchups

A marquee matchup on Saturday is the highlight of the three game inter league set

The Diamondbacks (52-39) are visiting the Toronto Blue Jays this weekend for the first time since 2019.  They can only hope it goes as well as it did that time, as Arizona swept Toronto in three games, outscoring them 22-4.  That was a down year for the Blue Jays however, winning just 67 games.  They're currently  50-41 and have won over 90 games each of the previous two seasons. 

Starting Pitching Matchups

The series starting pitching matchups appear pretty tough as Toronto is running out their best three starters to begin the second half. As expected Merrill Kelly will not pitch in this series. We are still waiting on word of his probably returns from a blood clot in his calf.  Thanks to an off day Monday the D-backs have the option to skip the 5th starter's spot and wait until the Cincinnati series next weekend to bring Kelly back.  But it's also possible Kelly could be back for the Atlanta series. 

Friday July 14th, 4:07 MST

Jack Sommers

Ryne Nelson's up and down rookie season continues tonight. He was coming off his two best starts of the season, throwing seven innings of one run ball in consecutive starts before getting blown out by the Mets on July 6th. In that game he lasted just three innings, giving up seven runs on nine hits.  He didn't walk a batter but struck out just two and gave up two homers, two doubles and two triples in a barrage of hard contact.

Like most pitchers, he needs to locate his pitches and avoid mistakes in the middle of the plate. Despite a fastball that averages 94.5 and can sometimes touch 98, hitters are batting .304 with a .520 slugging percentage against the pitch.  When he locates the fastball his change up against left hand batters and slider against right hand batters become very effective pitches. 

Jose Berrios threw seven innings of one hit scoreless baseball against the White Sox in his final start before the break. Traded by Twins to the Blue Jays at the deadline in 2021, he had a career best 3.52 ERA in 190 total innings, going 12-9. He started one game in the ALDS, going four innings giving up three runs, one earned in a Blue Jays loss. To that point he had a career 60-47 record with a 4.04 ERA. 

Berrios was rewarded with  a 7 yr. /$131 million extension from Toronto in November of 2021.  Last year he went 12-7 but had a 5.23 ERA and did not pitch in the wild card series loss to the Mariners. This year however his numbers are matching his 2021 career year. His signature pitch is a Slurve, which he throws 30% of the time. It has a 34% whiff rate and just a .194 B.A. against, which is consistent with his career. He also throws a sinker and four-seam fastball, and a change up. He generally doesn't walk hitters so his K/BB ratio is well above average despite being around league average in strikeout rate. Very tough on RHB, (.519 OPS against), LHB have a .758 OPS against him.

Saturday July 15th, 12:07 P.M. MST

Jack Sommers

If you like marquee pitching matchups, this is the game for you. It will feature two of the best pitchers in baseball at the peak of their game. 

National League All Star Game starter Zac Gallen has been a stopper for Arizona all year long. In starts after a D-backs loss made by Gallen he is 7-0, and the team is 8-2.  He has a high spin 93-94 MPH fastball that he locates really well and a sharp curveball that is his most often used secondary pitch. The whiff rate on the curve is a whopping 44%. He uses a cutter and a change up as his third pitch depending on which one he has the better feel for that day. 

Gallen has been nearly untouchable at home, (9-0, 1.48 ERA) but when he's struggled this year it's usually come on the road. He's just 2-3,  5.08 ERA and a .731 OPS against in nine road starts. 

Kevin Gausman is a late bloomer  that broke out in his age 30 season and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the last three years. An All-Star this year as well, his numbers across the board match Gallen's with the exception of the win-loss record. That is because Gausman has received just 3.2 run support per game, while Gallen has gotten 5.4 R/G of support. 

Gausman throws a mid 90's four seam-fastball and a devastating splitter. He'll also mix in an occasional slider. Gausman has a 2.58 home ERA with a .602 OPS against. 

Sunday, July 16th,  10:37 A.M. MST

Tommy Henry has allowed just four runs in his last four outings, covering 24.1 innings. That's driven his ERA well under four, despite peripherals that don't quite match. (5.25 FIP, 5.36 xFIP).  Those indicators are significantly higher than ERA and could suggest some regression is due. But Henry has been able to induce hitters to chase pitches just out of the strike zone, making them look like strikes, and inducing a lot of soft contact. His hard hit rate against of 28% ranks 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers. (min 70 IP)

Henry is more than content to let his defense do the work behind him and not go for the strikeout all the time. But when he really needs a strikeout he's been capable of getting one. In fact in high leverage situations he has a 29.3% strikeout rate, compared to just 13.7% in medium leverage and 17.3% in low leverage.  While it's generally never a good idea to bet on a player beating his FIP and xFIP by over 1.5 runs, if there is a formula for outperforming your peripherals it would be the ability to induce soft contact and get strikeouts in key situations. Time will tell if this is a sustainable skillset for Henry or not. As a side note, from speaking with him numerous times, he seems to have the confidence and mindset to pull it off. 

Yusei Kikuchi is a 32-year-old left-hander out of Japan. Originally brought over by the Mariners in 2019 for 3yrs/$43 million, he became a free agent prior to last season.  Toronto signed him to a front loaded 3yr, $36 million contract.  This year and next he's only costing the Blue Jays $10 million. 

Coming into this season he had a 21-31 record and a 5.02 ERA. He's having a career year this season however, going 7-3, 4.24 ERA.  The FIP is still elevated at 5.19.  Not especially durable or a pitcher who will get deep into games often, Kikuchi has only qualified for the ERA title once in his career, his 2019 MLB rookie season. 

Kikuchi has a mid to upper 90's fastball, a slider a change and curveball.  Prior to 2023 he had a somewhat normal split. Right hand batters knocked him around but LHB generally couldn't hit him. This year this split is even however, as LHB have a .801 OPS against him compared to a .789.  That may work in the D-backs favor as they can't avoid at least two or three left hand batters in the lineup usually.