Did the Padres Close the Gap on D-backs With Cease Trade?

After narrowly missing out on the playoffs, the Padres expect to return to contention after trading for Dylan Cease.

One of the Diamondbacks division rivals swung a blockbuster trade today, with the San Diego Padres getting Dylan Cease. Cease, 28, was one of the hottest starting pitching names on the trade market with the Chicago White Sox undergoing a regime change with their front office. Going back to Chicago is reliever Steven Wilson along with prospects Drew Thorpe, Samuel Zavala, and Jairo Iriarte. Thorpe, Zavala, and Iriarte rank 5th, 7th, and 8th on the Padres Top 30 prospect lists according to MLB. While it's a high price to pay for San Diego, giving up a reliever and three Top 10 prospects, they certainly feel that Cease helps close the gap between the two teams.

Coming off a trip to the National League Championship Series in 2022, expectations were high for San Diego. The type of season the Padres were expecting instead happened to the D-backs, who became the second consecutive sixth seed to win a National League pennant. Two series in August ultimately decided the fate of those two teams. Arizona won both series, winning five of seven games, to push San Diego out of Wild Card contention while springboarding themselves into the thick of the race then clinching on the penultimate day of the season.

With the addition of Cease, the Padres have a rotation that also features an aging Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, offseason acquisition Michael King, and knuckleballer Matt Waldron. It's a rotation that looks very good on paper, with Cease likely slotting in as their No. 2 or 3 starter off the bat. After trading Juan Soto in the offseason, the Padres will need their rotation to do a lot of the heavy lifting if they want to put themselves back in contention. The expectations for the National League West are the Dodgers will win the division with over 100 wins, with the D-backs likely to land a Wild Card spot and San Diego barely missing the postseason. 

Those expectations could change depending on how this trade is viewed. At the very least the Padres have improved their 2024 outlook relative to the rest  of the league, albeit at a large future potential cost.