How Many More Starts for Madison Bumgarner?

The Diamondbacks face a difficult choice that they must make soon

As the television broadcast captured Madison Bumgarner looking out onto the field from the dugout while the D-backs were batting in the top of the 5th inning, he had the distant stare of a pitcher that has no answers. 

A five-run, six-hit inning for the Marlins in the bottom of the fourth keyed a 5-1 Miami victory.  As the inning unfolded it became increasingly clear, once again, that Bumgarner must be perfect with his command on the edges to get by. If he paints the corners he can get outs. But all too often he's not able to do that. When he misses he's forced to come back into the zone. Lacking the command  to stay out of the middle of the plate his assortment of 86 MPH cutters, 90 MPH fastballs, and 78 MPH curveballs have been getting hammered. 

Bumgarner allowed seven balls in play over 100 MPH today, and four more between 95-99.  He came back out to pitch a scoreless fifth inning, and after the game there were the usual platitudes about one bad inning. 

"I think he was just making some middle middle mistakes and they were capitalizing" said manager Torey Lovullo. "The first three innings I thought he was very good moving the ball around the zone. He was throwing some really good pitches arm side, and it resulted in three really solid innings......I know he was frustrated by that five-run fourth, and he rebounded to give us a clean fifth"

Lovullo also seemed to be somewhat critical of his young catcher Gabriel Moreno for not getting out to the mound sooner for a mound visit to slow things down. The inning happened in just 22 pitches, and Lovullo said Moreno went out one batter too late. Only after Jon Berti hit a two run double into the left field corner driving in the third and fourth runs of the inning did Moreno make the visit. 

One interesting  piece of intrigue to come out of the post game interviews was despite the extra couple of days rest, Bumgarner cryptically referred to some issues with his work between starts. "There was a lot going on between  the last start and this one." he said.  "It wasn't quite as smooth as it may have looked just getting a couple of extra days. There was a lot of stuff going on. I'm not going to tell you all the stuff that's going on. But it wasn't just an ordinary couple of extra days." 

On follow up he responded that he wanted to keep things a secret for now. There have been rumblings in the past about not being on the same page with pitching coach Brent Strom. Last year Bumgarner moved to the third base side of the rubber prior to a start against the Pirates at Strom's urging. Bumgarner looked clearly frustrated by that change and it  did not seem to help him resolve his location issues.  Poor location and pitches in the middle of the zone getting hit hard have been the problem for him almost from the beginning of his Diamondback career. He's worked hard. It's not a matter of effort. But the results are just not there.  Now there may be some issues between him and the coaching staff bubbling up to the surface as well. 

The offense was not able to pick Bumgarner up this time, as they had a lackluster effort at the plate.  Left hander Trevor Rogers threw six strong innings before giving up singles to Christian Walker and Evan Longoria in the seventh.  Walker ended up scoring on a fielders choice for the D-backs lone run in the game. Rogers's record improved to 1-2 and he lowered his ERA from 6.00 to 4.20

The only positives for the D-backs in this game was a two hit night with a stolen base for Corbin Carroll and  three scoreless mop up innings from reliever Peter Solomon.

Last year Bumgarner's record was 7-15, and the team was 12-18 in games he started, gong 5-3 in his no decisions. So far the team has lost two of his three starts in 2023 and his personal record stands at 0-2 with a 7.90 ERA. He's walked 11 batters and given up 18 hits in 13.2 innings.  For his D-backs career he is 15-31 in 68 starts, and an unsightly 5.10 ERA.  In a word, his starts have become non-competitive more often than not.  

For an organization that came into the game alone in first place in the NL West and having designs on competing for a post season spot, this situation has backed them into a corner. They already have two rookies in the starting rotation in Ryne Nelson and Drey Jameson.  Zach Davies is on the injured list with an oblique injury and is likely to miss at least the next four weeks.  Bumgarner is still owed over $35 million through the end of 2024. They can't manufacture a fake injury, and it seems unlikely either the team or Bumgarner himself would think a bullpen role is appropriate. 

Walking away from Bumgarner and paying him $35 million not to pitch would be a bitter pill for Mike Hazen and ownership to swallow. But after today's game, the two questions they face could not be any clearer.

• Is winning and making the playoffs truly the number one priority ?

• If it is, would the team be better off if they DFA'd Bumgarner and elect to go the rest of the season with one of Brandon Pfaadt or Tommy Henry in the rotation ?

It may seem easy to ask and answer these questions from the comfort of one's couch or the press box, but it's in fact proven a very difficult choice for the people who run the team. Mike Hazen and Torey Lovullo have been very patient, and have proven that they will seldom make knee jerk decisions.  How and when they answer this question will go a long way to setting the tone for the rest of the season however. 

Tommy Henry started yesterday, and Brandon Pfaadt is starting tonight for Reno. From a rest standpoint, either one of them would be eligible to start in  Bumgarner's spot in the rotation in St. Louis next Wednesday against the Cardinals. Henry would seem the most likely, as he's already on the 40-man roster and has already pitched in the majors last year. 

Whether or not the team will make a move that quickly, or give Bumgarner more starts to try to fix what seems unfixable at this point remains to be seen. Watch this space.

Tomorrow the D-backs will try to get back into this series, with rookie right-hander Ryne Nelson taking the bump while the Marlins will send lefty Braxton Garrett. First pitch is 12:40 PM MST.