Mariners at D-backs Preview: Julio Rodriguez is Red Hot
While many fans are anxiously waiting to see if the Diamondbacks will make any trades prior to Tuesday's trade deadline, there is a lot of baseball to be played, starting again tonight at Chase Field. The Seattle Mariners are in town for a three game series that has potential playoff and trade deadline ramifications. D-backs GM Mike Hazen and Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto have made trades before. Perhaps they will do so again before this weekend is over.
The D-backs (55-48) wake up this morning in third place in the NL West, 4.0 games behind the Dodgers, and 1.0 games behind the San Francisco Giants, who currently occupy the first wild card spot. In fact the D-backs are tied with the Marlins 0.5 games behind Philadelphia and Cincinnati for the 2nd and 3rd wild card spots.
The Mariners at 52-50 are in 4th place in the AL West, 7.5 games back of the rangers, and 4.5 games out of the last AL Wild Card spot with four teams ahead of them. As such it's widely expected the Mariners will join the ranks of "sellers" over the weekend. That said they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, won their last two, and are 12-8 in their last 20 games. They have +30 run differential whereas the D-backs have just a +5 run differential and are 6-14 in their last 20 games.
Tonight's Starting Pitching Matchup, first pitch 6:40 P.M.
Logan Gilbert RHP, 8-5, 3.88 ERA, is a 6'6" right hander who was taken by the Mariners in the first round of the 2018 draft, (14th overall). The 26 year old has followed up his breakout sophomore season last year (13-8, 3.20 ERA in 185 IP) to put up another really solid season. He has an outstanding strikeout to walk ratio of 116/21 and averaged roughly six innings per start in his 20 outings.
Gilbert's fastball averages over 95 MPH and can reach the upper 90's. He often spots it with pinpoint command which allows him to get to his secondary pitches which included a slider, a curve, and a split finger. None of his pitches have exceptional spin, but with high velocity, command, and changing speeds he can be very effective. He is occasionally prone to the long ball, giving up 16 homers in 118.1 IP
Tommy Henry LHP, 5-4, 4.01 ERA is coming off two below average starts, allowing seven runs, six earned in his last 8.2 innings. That had followed a strong four start stretch. It's been an up and down season for the second year pitcher out of Michigan. Henry will turn 26 years old tomorrow, and while it's not fair to say he's a "finished product" after just 24 career starts, we've probably seen the best he has to offer in terms of stuff.
Henry's fastball averages just 90.7 MPH. He can squeeze a little more out of it, but prefers to command the pitch and try to set up his secondaries to induce soft contact. He's been able to do that really well, and he has a bulldog mentality. He doesn't like to give in to hitters, but is more than willing to let his defense behind him come into play. There are sustainability questions however. His fielding independent metrics such as FIP (5.10) and xFIP (5.49) are over a run higher than his actual ERA. Over time such a gap does not last. Either the pitcher improves his strikeout to walk ratio and/or home run rates, thus lowering the FIP, or the ERA will tend to rise towards the FIP/xFIP numbers.
Mariners Offense
It's important to remember that the Mariners play home games in one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in all of MLB. T-Mobile Park's 3-year weighted batting park factor per Baseball Reference is 96. 100 is league average, under 100 favors the pitcher and over 100 favors the hitter. So despite ranking 27th in batting average (.232) and 22nd in OPS (.708) they have a team OPS+ of 99 (League and Park adjusted OPS). That's just slightly below the league average of 100.
Last year's rookie of the year Julio Rodriguez was having somewhat of a sophomore slump. His .250/.315/.427 triple slash adds up to a 108 OPS+, which is above average but a far cry last year's stunning 146 OPS+ (.853 OPS). He's been red hot lately however, going 8-for-26, .308 and four home runs in his last six games. Rodriguez leads the team with 17 homers and is second in RBI with 55.
This year's top Mariner's rookie Jarred Kelenic was having a good season with a 112 OPS+ but is out with a self induced broken toe due to a temper tantrum. Shortstop J.P. Crawford has the highest OPS+ on the team at 118, due mostly to a high on base percentage of .368. Teoscar Hernandez has 16 homers and a team high 58 RBI, but just a 102 OPS+ due to a .288 OBP.
Diamondbacks Offense
The team offense woke up from a two week slumber back in Atlanta, and for the most part has done their job scoring runs albeit inconsistently. Some of that has come in garbage time as they've still struggled to get hits in key moments of close games. Here are the batting stats for the last six games. Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll have been carrying the offense. Lourdes Gurriel Jr's mystifying slump continues.
Bullpens
The Mariners have a good bullpen, the Diamondbacks.....do not. The Mariners have a closer, the Diamondbacks....do not. Maybe. Seattle's 3.71 bullpen ERA ranks 5th best in MLB, Arizona's 4.57 ERA ranks 23rd. Paul Sewald is an unheralded closer with 20 saves vs. just three blown and a 3.00 ERA. He is a under team control through 2024, and won't be a free agent until 2025. The bulk of the Mariners pen including Matt Brash, Justin Topa, Gabe Speier, and Andres Munoz all have ERA+ over 100, meaning better than league average.
The D-backs have a 7.08 bullpen ERA for the month of July so far. The ONLY reliever with more than three games pitched this month that has been effective is Kevin Ginkel, who has a 1.17 ERA in eight outings and has recorded three saves. Late inning, high leverage relievers Andrew Chafin (10.50 ERA in 7 games), Scott McGough (11.88 ERA in 8 games) and Miguel Castro (7.56 ERA in 9 games) have been major contributors to the team's July slump.
