Mets and D-Backs Series Pitching Matchups, July 4th-6th

Max Scherzer returns to Chase Field as a Met.

The New York Mets are in town for a three game series against the Diamondbacks at Chase Field. The series starts on our Nation's birthday,  Tuesday the 4th of July and runs through the 6th. 

The Mets  just took the final two games of a three games series with the Giants on the heels of a 3-10 stretch in their schedule. They're  38-46 on the year and eight games out of the NL Wild Card. They just made a trade today  acquiring reliever Trevor Gott for Zack Muckenhirn. They also got Chris Flexen and his salary, but are  expected to DFA Flexen. 

The Diamondbacks record is 50-35 and they are 3.0 games ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West. They've been playing .500 ball lately however, going 5-5 in their last 10 and 10-10 in their last 20.  They're coming off a series victory in Anaheim but were unable to get the three game sweep yesterday with All Star Zac Gallen on the mound, losing 5-2. 

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday, July 4th, 1:10 P.M.

Jack Sommers

Kodai Senga  was a premier pitcher in the Japan major leagues for 11 years with Softbank of the NPB. He had a career record of 87-44, with 2.59 ERA.  The 30 year old rookie signed a five-year, $75 million deal with the Mets this past off season. Senga throws a mid to upper 90's fastball, averaging 96 MPH and a devastating forkball that is virtually unhittable. He also has a cutter and a sweeper

As is to be expected, his numbers are not quite as good in MLB, but he's still a dominant pitcher. He averages over 11 K/9 and batters are hitting just .209 with a .659 OPS against him. The one flaw in his game is walks as he leads the league in that category with 46, for a 5.1 BB/9 ratio.  Oddly enough though he has five games where he's walked three or four batters yet has given up either zero or one run. He also has a couple of games where he's only walked one but got knocked around for four or five runs.  So it's just not as simple as saying if he walks guys you can beat him. He's stubborn, and you might not. 

Zach Davies is coming off his best start of the year, following one of the worst three game stretches of his career. While Davies ERA is still quite high at 6.54, it should be noted his FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching is only 4.06.  He's only given up three homers, but needs to continue to lower his walk rate the rest of the way if he is to be successful.  

Wednesday, July 5th, 6:40 P.M.

Jack Sommers

Don't be fooled by  former Diamondback Max Scherzer's higher than usual ERA. He's still one of the best pitchers in the league. 22 of his 33 earned runs allowed came in four bad outings. He's given up two runs or less in nine of his other 10 starts. He's hot right now too. Over his last three games he's thrown 20 innings and has 25 strikeouts while walking just four.  Scherzer does give up a lot of homers though, 13 in 77 innings, with nine of those coming from right handed batters. 

Scherzer has made five starts in Chase Field since he was traded following the 2009 season, most recently in 2021. In those five starts he's 4-0 with a 3.33 ERA. 

Tommy Henry's peripherals aren't great as his K/B ratio is well below league average and his HR/9 rate is much higher than league average.  But he's been on a roll his last three starts, pitching 18.1 innings, giving up just four earned runs. He's walked five, and struck out 16 in this stretch while giving up three homers.

Henry's low 90's fastball isn't going to blow anyone away, but he's locating really well and has shown a much improved slider which he and pitching coach Brent Strom rebuilt from the ground up this year.  

Thursday, July 6th, 6:40 P.M.

Jack Sommers

As of this writing the Mets have still not named a pitcher for Thursday's game. It should be Carlos Carrasco's turn.  We'll update once announced. 

Ryne Nelson had his best start since his big league debut last September when he threw seven scoreless against the Padres. This past he pitched into the eighth inning, giving up just one run on three hits, a solo homer, one walk and six strikeouts. That makes three good starts in a row for Nelson, who's given up just five runs in his last 19.1 innings of work. The rookie right-hander is getting it done with better fastball command and a much improved changeup.