Pitching Matchups for Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Series

A big test this week for the young D-backs core

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The first place Los Angeles Dodgers (96-43) have already guaranteed themselves a post season slot and the elimination number for NL West Champion over the San Diego Padres is just 3.

Suffice to say the Diamondbacks (66-73) will have their hands full against the juggernaut from LA. The Dodgers lead the season series between these two teams with a  9-2 record. Since the 2020 season the Dodgers have completely dominated the D-backs, going 33-7 in head-to-head matchups

The hope in Arizona is that with the core of young players that has emerged over the last several months they will be more competitive and win a few more games going forward.  The two teams will play 8 more games against each other, 3 this week in Chase Field and 5 games in 4 days next week in Los Angeles. 

Pitching Matchups

Monday, September 12 at 6:40 P.M. MST

Name	Games	Innings	Record	ERA	FIP	K/9
Tyler Anderson, LHP	26	154.2	14-3	2.73	3.42	6.8
Ryne Nelson, RHP	1	7	1-0	0.00	1.12	9.0

Tyler Anderson spent the first 4 years of his career with the Rockies and then bounced around with the Giants, Pirates, and Mariners for the next two seasons.  On the surface his career to that point was unimpressive, with a 29-38 record and 4.62 ERA. But his career ERA+, a measure that accounts for run environment and ballpark factors ranked him at 100, or exactly league average. Believing they could turn Anderson into more than that the Dodgers signed him to a one year, $8M free agent contract on March 18, 2022. To say it's paid off would be an understatement. The numbers above represent by far a career year. Furthermore, in a season where Clayton Kershaw has been on and off the IL and Walker Buehler is out for the year having undergone his second Tommy John Surgery,  Anderson has been a life saver for the Dodgers rotation. He doesn't strike out a lot of batters, or induce a lot of ground balls for that matter. But he's dropped his walk rate from 2.7/9 to a minuscule 1.7/9 . His Changeup is one of the best in the league this season and opposing batters are hitting just .185 against that pitch with a .275 slugging percentage. 

Anderson faced the Diamondbacks twice this year and both times got the win, going 7 innings and allowing 2 runs on May 17th, and then throwing 6 innings of shutout baseball on May 29th. 

Ryne Nelson made his major league debut on September 5th against the San Diego Padres and was outstanding, throwing 7 shut out innings, while striking out 7 and not walking a batter. The 24 year old right hander allowed just 4 hits. His fastball topped out at 98 MPH and averaged 95, and he mixed in his slider, curve and changeup, showing good command of all three pitches. Tonight's game will be an even  sterner test than the revamped Padres lineup however. 

Tuesday, September 13th, 6:40 P.M. MST

Name	Games	Innings	Record	ERA	FIP	K/9
Clayton Kershaw, LHP	17	96.1	7-3	2.62	2.70	9.5
Merrill Kelly, RHP	28	171.2	12-5	2.94	3.28	7.7

When he has been able to stay on the mound, Clayton Kershaw continues to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. Back injuries have limited his appearances, and he no longer throws as hard as he used to, with a fastball averaging just 90.7 MPH compared to mid 90's during his peak. But he has impeccable command of the 4 seamer and still has a great slider and curveball. He  lands both for strikes at will and is inducing soft contact, enjoying the lowest barrel rate of his career. 

Kershaw hasn't faced the D-backs this year. As always the matchup to watch will be against Christian Walker, who is 7 for 22 including 4 homers against the future Hall of Famer.  That's tied with Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and the retired Adam Dunn for the most  career homers against Kershaw. 

Merrill Kelly may have ceded the title of staff ace to Zac Gallen, but he's been the team's most consistent starter providing both innings and quality all year long. Kelly may have suffered a bit of regression in his last start against the Padres however. Having allowed just 11 homers all year, he gave up 3 homers in 7 innings. Those were the only hits he allowed however leading to 4 runs in a no-decision. 

Against teams not named the Dodgers Kelly is 12-2 with a 2.38 ERA.  But LA has had his number this year. In three starts, 13 innings he's 0-3, 9.69 ERA, giving up 14 runs  on 19 hits, including 2 homers and also 8 walks.  

Wednesday, September 14th, 6:40 P.M. MST

Starters have not yet been announced for this game. With the demotion of Tommy Henry to AAA the Diamondbacks must decide whether to make a roster move and promote another starter or revert to a 5 man rotation. Earlier this month manager Torey Lovullo said that the team would go with a 6 man rotation due to having to play 18 games in 17 days, including a double header in LA on September 20th.