The D-backs Take Calculated Risk with Eduardo Rodriguez
Late last night it was reported by multiple sources that the Diamondbacks signed fee agent starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez to a contract that guarantees him four years, $80 million dollars through 2027. There is a vesting option for 2028 that takes the deal to $100 million should he reach 150 innings pitched in both 2026 and 2027. It's also been reported he has a 10-team no trade clause. The deal is pending a physical for the left-hander who will be 31 next season, and has not yet been officially confirmed by the club.
Despite there being some potential and particular risks with Rodriguez, he is a good bet to be an innings eater for the club. Especially for a team that was forced to throw bullpen games in the NLCS and World Series last year. The 150 innings pitched thresholds in the vesting option are notable. Earlier this week I asked GM Mike Hazen what his criteria is to meet the innings eater definition. "We're somewhere in that 150-175 range would be my guess. How many guys threw 150 innings last year, how many threw 150 innings compared to 10-20 years ago?"
Hazen was spot on. Back in 2009 there were 58 pitchers who threw 180 innings or more and 28 who threw 205 plus innings. In 2023 there were 58 pitchers who threw 150 innings or more and just 25 of them who threw over 180. Clearly the definition of what constitutes an innings eater in today's game has been dialed back to that 150 innings level.
In getting Rodriguez they now have a pitcher they can slot in behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly who is generally a good bet to reach 150 innings, and do so at a league average or slightly above run prevention level. A cursory glance at Rodriguez's stat page and career lines may not immediately support that statement. However one needs to look closer and understand the numbers and circumstances.
From 2015 to 2018, his ages 23-26 seasons he averaged 22 starts and 124 innings for the Red Sox. Then in 2019 he broke out, going 19-6 with a 3.80 ERA while making 34 starts and throwing 204 innings. In July of 2020 he contracted Covid-19 and after a battery of tests he was diagnosed with Myocarditis as a result of that infection. He was shut down for the season and did not pitch during the Pandemic year. He came back in 2021 and made 32 starts, throwing 158 innings. Following the season he was a free agent and signed a five year, $77 million deal with the Tigers. That deal included a 10 team no-trade clause and an opt-out after year two.
In 2022 he left the team midseason however to deal with personal family crisis. He did not communicate with the Tigers for weeks and was on the restricted list for three months before finally returning in late August. Thus he only made 17 starts and threw 91 innings that year. While the family crisis that prompted his absence was frustrating for the Tigers, it's important to note that it was not physical related.
In 2023 Rodriguez made 26 starts, posting a career best 3.30 ERA in 153 innings pitched. He did miss 37 days from May 30th to July 5th with an index finger injury. Again, it's important to note that was not an arm injury. The Tigers attempted to trade him to the Dodgers at the deadline, but the deal fell through at the last minute when he exercised his no-trade clause, refusing to go to L.A. At the time Rodriguez cited not wanting to move his family mid-season to a new location.
In November Rodriguez exercised his opt out rights, and hit the free agent market. The saga of Rodriguez tenure with Tigers clearly left that organization frustration. First the missed time in 2022, then the trade refusal, and finally opting out, leaving them with nothing to show for losing him. On the other hand they did try to trade him, meaning there was no loyalty or love lost coming back at that point. Clearly the 2022 absence caused by family issues was not something the Tigers were fully confident would not recur. Meanwhile in this hyper competitive starting pitching market, it was a no brainer for Rodriguez to opt out. By doing so he stands to make an extra $30 million and perhaps more.
Rodriguez is reported to have indicated during a two hour presentation with the D-backs in Nashville that he will move his family from Miami to Arizona. The opportunity to have his family in one place throughout the year was an important point for him. Both Hazen and Amiel Sawdaye have extensive history with Rodriguez from the time together in Boston. Presumably that gave them confidence to take a chance on him being able to stabilize his life and career here in Arizona.
The projections for Rodriguez appear to be right in line with what the team needs. Averaging Steamer and ZiPS projections available at Fangraphs he comes out to approximately 158 innings pitched and right around a 4.00 ERA, which is worth about 2.5 WAR. As of this writing it's not known if the contract is backloaded or if the annual salary is spread evenly across the deal. Should the dollar amount for 2024 be $20 million then the D-backs payroll commit for the year is up to about $135 million. They still intend to add a right handed bat, and Hazen indicated that would be more likely to come via free agency than trade. In addition they are still in search of a back up catcher to ease the workload for Gabriel Moreno. Should they follow through on those initiatives then their payroll could end up at or above $150 million which would be a franchise record.
