Offense is Down Across MLB and Rob Manfred Can't be Happy

The new rule changes were thought to help increase offense and action, but early trends this season show a reversal in these areas

Feb 15, 2024; Tampa, FL, USA; MLB commissioner Rob Manfred talks with media / Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

When Rob Manfred and Major League Baseball instituted the pitch clock, placed limitations on defensive shifts, and made moves to increase base stealing, it's not likely that they anticipated a decrease in scoring in 2024. But in fact, run scoring is down 0.18 runs per game across MLB compared to last season. That's about a 4% reduction in runs.

All comparisons in this article are covering the first 744 team games last year with the first 742 this year. So it's apples to apples, so to speak. It should also be noted that full scoring was 4.28 R/G in 2022 and jumped to a year-end 4.62 last year in the first year under the new rules. But the trends causing lower scoring appear to have resumed.

Run Scoring 2023 vs 2024 / Jack Sommers

Below are the comparative batting averages and OPS for April 2023 vs. April 2024. OPS correlates to team-level run scoring more than any other statistic. 24 points of OPS is a significant drop. League-wide OPS has not been below .700 since 1989. It appears that the efforts of MLB to increase batting average through the elimination of the shift is not working either. A .240 batting average is not only five points lower than last year, it would be the lowest since 1968, when it was .237.

It's good to keep these numbers in mind when looking over player statistics. The environment, or context has changed rapidly. Whenever possible you should refer to metrics like OPS+ or ERA+, which measure a player's output against the league average, and adjusts for ballparks as well. 100 is considered league average, and the higher the better. You can find these statistics on any player or team page on Baseball Reference.

Batting Averages 2023 vs 2024 / Jack Sommers

Drilling down further, we can see that walk and strike out rates are mostly unchanged, and in fact the strikeout rate is slightly lower this year compared to the same time period last year. However there is a whopping 13% drop in the home run rate, and BABIP, or Batting Average on Balls in Play (excludes homers, walks and strikeouts) is down six points.

Clearly the league's effort to increase base hits on balls in play through the elimination of the shift has not worked. A side note of interest is that 6.9% of runs scored were unearned in 2023. That percentage has jumped to 10.3% in 2024. The increase in runs, as well as the decrease in batting average and BABIP could also be partly attributed to more errors. (When an error is charged to a fielder the batter is charged with an out)

BB, K, HR, and BABIP Rates 2023 vs 2024 / Jack Sommers

Peeling back another layer, when we look at the type of balls being hit, we see a sizable drop in the rate of line drives (2.5%), and what amounts to a very large increase in the rate of Infield Fly per Fly Ball, i.e. popup rate. (8.3%) Clearly the quality of contact is worse. In addition to the table below, it's notable that the soft contact percentage has gone from 16% to 17.1%, or a 7% increase.

Ball in Play Distribution 2023 vs 2024 / Jack Sommers

So what's causing the drop in the quality of contact and ball in play distribution? Some may think it's velocity, but in fact velocity on all pitches remains almost exactly the same as last year. What's changed however is the pitch distribution as per the table below. There has been a dramatic decrease over the last 10 years in the use of both 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs and a large increase in sliders and cutters.

Pitch Usage Across Major League Baseball During the Statcast Era (2015-Present). / Jack Sommers

It makes intuitive sense that it's tougher to make solid contact on the slider and cutter. Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo likes to use the phrase "Major League hitters can put wood on a bullet" when it comes to hitting high velocity fastballs. Clearly teams, coaches, and pitchers have decided chasing harder breaking pitches, i.e. cutters and sliders is the way to go. The drop in curveball usage is notable in this regard as well.

Conclusion

Run scoring is down across major league baseball. A decrease in the quality of contact has resulted in lower batting average and fewer homers. One possible cause for the decreases in these areas is the increased reliance on hard breaking pitches, such as sliders and cutters. Defense may also be a factor based on the increase in unearned runs. Not touched upon in this article, as I have no evidence for it, is whether or not there may have been changes to the baseball.

As a side note, it's entirely possible that the perceived increase in pitcher injuries, especially since 2020-21, may very well be due to the increased use of sliders and cutters. That topic is not within the scope of this analysis, but it's a thread I might pull on at a later time.