Breaking Down the Changes to the Top 30 Prospects List

A quick rundown on the players who graduated and entered the midseason update of the Diamondbacks Top 30 Prospects list.

With the midseason update of the Diamondbacks Top 30 Prospects List now released, this piece will cover projections for graduated prospects and a brief summary on prospects entering the list. 

If you're curious to compare, here is the 2023 Preseason Top Prospects List.

Graduations

Corbin Carroll (Preseason No. 1) looks like the next superstar in Arizona, already putting up a .928 OPS with 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases. He has the potential to be a perennial All-Star and MVP candidate if he can stay healthy throughout his year. He's been extended through the 2030 season with a club option for 2031.

Ryne Nelson (Preseason No. 6) has been inconsistent in 2023, with his command and stuff taking a step back from where it was in 2022. The inability to consistently command his secondaries, an issue that's persisted since the start of Spring Training, has kept him from taking the next step. 

Drey Jameson (Preseason No. 5) has the highest ceiling of all the arms currently in the system, but hasn't found a consistent role on his squad. At his best, he has two double-plus offerings, a mid-90s sinker with a lot of arm-side run and a slider that generates a lot of swings-and-misses. 

Newest Additions

Dylan Ray (No. 14) takes the highest spot for the newest additions. Fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, Ray has exhibited great control numbers with Hillsboro (51 strkeouts, 11 walks) although he's been getting hit hard of late. He features a mid-90s fastball, slider, and changeup combination that gives him the profile of a bottom of the rotation (No. 4/5) starter.

Kristian Robinson's (No. 17) talent level is on par with Druw Jones (No. 3), but given he's missed his Age 19-21 seasons there is a lot of lost at-bats to make up. He opened up about the lost time and his battles with mental health issues recently in an interview reported on by Jack Sommers earlier this week. With three option-years available on his contract, possibly the sneaky fourth option-year, that's his timeline to work his way to the big leagues. He has plus raw power, but the main concern will be his ability to make contact. Watch that strikeout rate closely. A good year could catapult him back into a top prospect once again.

Since being promoted to Visalia on May 2nd, Jose Fernandez (No. 26) has taken the lion's share of playing at shortstop. 18 of his 27 starts have come at the position, with three more at second and six at third. With a 6'3" frame, there may be more projectable power down the road as he adds more muscle each season. There's the possibility Fernandez outgrows the shortstop position and needs to be moved to third. He's currently batting .245 with two home runs, 14 walks, and 26 strikeouts in 126 plate appearances.

Yilber Diaz (No. 24) has big swing-and-miss stuff between an upper-90s fastball and a big breaking ball. Consistency has been an issue, with an ERA of 6.39, a walk rate of 15% and averaging 2.03 home runs per nine innings, but he has turned in two great starts in a row. He's the type of pitcher who could convert to the bullpen and move quickly to the big leagues when he has to focus on fewer pitches and face a lineup just once.

Gian Zapata (No. 29) is the crown jewel of the D-backs 2023 International Free Agent class, as a 6'4" outfielder with long levers that projects for plus power down the road. He may eventually outgrow the center field position and move over to right field where the plus arm will play better.