Can Kristian Robinson Resurrect His Career in 2023?

The once promising young prospect has missed the last three years of development due to legal issues.

Kristian Robinson was at one time the most exciting prospect in the Arizona Diamondbacks farm system. Originally signed by the D-backs out of the Bahamas for a $2.5 million bonus in 2017, Robinson was supposed to be the centerpiece of the 2023 squad but has lost three years of development due to legal issues. 

During the 2020 shutdown, he was arrested after assaulting a law enforcement officer and charged with felony assault. Robinson plead guilty to the charges in August 2021, which included a sentence of 150 hours of community service and 18 months of probation. With a felony on his record, he has been unable to secure a work visa and participate with any of the D-backs minor league affiliates over the past two seasons. Over that time, he's been only able to participate in extended Spring Training and work out at the team's Spring Training complex while on probation.

In an article last June, Arizona Republic's Nick Piecoro wrote that Robinson has two possibilities for a return to play. The first is for his felony to be reduced to a misdemeanor upon the completion of his probation in February, which might not be guaranteed to happen. The other is for the 22-year-old to gain U.S. citizenship, which would be the better option of the two. As of June, his citizenship application has not come through yet. 

Once he's able to resume playing in the minor leagues, the question will be how aggressive will the organization place him and the potential timetable to the big leagues. Robinson has only 92 plate appearances with a full-season affiliate back in 2019, so the team has to be careful not to place him in too challenging an environment. High-A Hillsboro makes the most sense, as the extreme pitcher-friendly park of Ron Tonkin Field will challenge him to work on his approach. Ideally he's able to have some success in High-A and play his way up to Double-A Amarillo by the All-Star break, where he can have a six week sample size at that level before the organization decides if he should get a call-up opportunity in September. 

The biggest issue will be the three years of lost reps, trying to get back into a routine in the minor leagues, and making adjustments against opposing pitchers. That will take some time, so any early success would be a bonus. The overall surface numbers matter a bit, but the underlying metrics such as swinging strike rate, chase rate, strikeout rate, and walk rate will be very important to see how he's developing as a hitter. 

In Arizona's system, Robinson still has tremendous upside, but carries the most amount of risk due to the lack of reps. Based on his Low-A numbers from 2019 and previous stops, this is where I project his tools and overall grade entering the 2023 season.

Hit 40, Power 60, Run 55, Arm 60, Defense 55, Overall 45, Risk: Extreme, ETA: 2024

Robinson has played mostly center field in the D-backs system in the past, but is likely to move to a corner with better options currently in center field. His plus arm profiles well for right field, allowing Corbin Carroll, Druw Jones, and Alek Thomas to stay in center if he hits well enough to stick. He has 30+ home run power, but also carries the risk of developing into a 30% strikeout guy which could limit his ceiling as a hitter. 

Here is an example of what type of power he offers:

500 ft.
107 MPH exit velocity.
32 degree launch angle.
We are running out of ways to describe Kristian Robinson. He hits his 9th HR of the season to put us up 3-1 in the 7th! Wow. Just wow.#AllHoppedUp pic.twitter.com/TRYPisrxVL

— Hillsboro Hops (@HillsboroHops) July 25, 2019

Until he is able to play a significant number of minor league games, projecting his future will be very difficult. The hope is that Robinson is able to make the necessary adjustments to be able to quickly progress through High-A and Double-A, putting himself back on the prospect map with Arizona.