Can Corbin Carroll Emulate Julio Rodriguez's Success?

The Diamondbacks are confident their top prospect will win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year.

Corbin Carroll is one of the highest ranked prospects in Diamondbacks history, taking home the No. 2 spot on both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America's Top 100 Prospect Lists ahead of the 2023 season. By placing on both lists ahead of the 2023 season with his rookie eligibility still intact, he qualifies for the Prospect Promotion Initiative. That's big news for both Carroll and the D-backs, as that could lead to big rewards for both the player and the franchise in the next off-season.

Last season we already got to see the benefits of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, as the Seattle Mariners were awarded a first round pick when Julio Rodriguez won American League Rookie of the Year. Rodriguez entered the 2022 season as the No. 3 prospect on MLB Pipeline and the No. 2 prospect on Baseball America, so he was ranked similarly as high as Carroll entering his rookie season. In a survey from MLB Pipeline, 66% of the executives and analysts predicted the D-backs top prospect would win the 2023 National League Rookie of the Year award, making him the overwhelming favorite. With that in mind, expectations are very high for the 22-year-old outfielder to make an immediate impact in his rookie season.

It may be more difficult for Carroll to separate himself from the pack than Rodriguez last year, as his value is tied more to his speed and defensive abilities than raw power. The Mariners superstar player boasts a massive 6-foot-3, 228-pound frame that projects well for power whereas Carroll carries more of a classic center fielder build at 5-10 165. In order to stand out in the upcoming rookie class, he will need to rely on his hitting, base stealing, and defensive skills and finish near the top in those categories to get the votes necessary to win the award. 

The need for the organization to successfully hit on Carroll's ceiling is two-fold, as not only would it give the fan base a reason to go to the ballpark but also put the team on the map as a potential contender. Arizona could stand to gain draft picks if Carroll wins Rookie of the Year or finishes in the Top 3 in the Most Valuable Player voting in his three pre-arbitration seasons (2023-2025). The D-backs can only be awarded a maximum of three picks for Carroll's performances.

In order for him to reach his ceiling however, he will need to close up these two major holes in his game. The first is being able to hit left-handed pitching well enough to stay in the lineup. In Double-A, Carroll had a significant OPS split between right-handed (1.173) and left-handed pitchers (.766). That extended itself to the big leagues, where he hit .290/.365/.553 with a 24/7 strikeout to walk against RHP and .179/.233/.357 with a 7/1 ratio against LHP. It's too early to write off Carroll as a platoon-only player, as he only has 657 minor league plate appearances and 115 in the majors. We'll have a better idea of his ability to hit lefties with a larger sample in 2023.

The second hole is he is vulnerable to pitches that break from the inner-third of the plate towards his hands. That's less concerning, as he'll react better to those pitches with more repetitions against big league pitching. Carroll is very adept at driving pitches out over the plate into the gaps, which in the spacious Chase Field means plenty of opportunities to run out extra base hits. The large outfields also serve as a means for the speedy outfielder to showcase his defensive value, something he'll need to finish strong in to win Rookie of the Year.

It's imperative the the D-backs hit on Carroll's ceiling, as they've been lacking a true face of the franchise player since trading Paul Goldschmidt four winters ago. The organization believed that Ketel Marte was going to be that guy when they signed him to a five-year extension last March, but an inconsistent 2022 may give them cause to doubt that decision. Should Carroll develop into the superstar player that his prospect ranking suggests, that gives the D-backs someone who they can market to bring fans to the park or tune into the game on T.V.