Diamondbacks Top Prospects #1: Outfielder Corbin Carroll

Carroll may be the most exciting prospect to arrive in Arizona since Paul Goldschmidt's debut in 2011.

Name: Corbin Carroll

Age: 22

Position: Center Fielder

Acquired: 2019 MLB Draft, 1st Round (16), $3.745M signing bonus

Bats/Throws: Left/Left

Tools and Grades: Hit 60, Power 55, Defense 65, Arm 55, Run 80, Overall 60

Carroll is a legitimate five-tool player who can make a major impact on the game at the plate, on the bases, or in the field. The arm, defense, and run grades are based on the small sample size he put up at the end of 2022, as he ranked in the 65th percentile in arm strength and 100th percentile in Sprint Speed and was 0.3 ft/s ahead of the next highest total. The 60 hit tool is mostly because there are questions about his ability to hit left-handed pitching. If he hits lefties fine, he's a 70-grade hitter.

ETA: 2023

Risk: Medium-Low

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2022 Diamondbacks Season Reviews

2022 Overview

Carroll was coming off major shoulder surgery that ended his 2021 season, but hit the ground running in 2022 after an aggressive placement in Double-A Amarillo. In his first month, he hit .353/.464/.632 with four home runs, six stolen bases, 12 walks, and 19 strikeouts over 17 games. That prompted  the Corbin Carroll watch, as the organization's consensus top prospect continued to rake at one of the most hitter-friendly parks and league in the minor leagues. In 58 games with Amarillo he hit .313/.430/.643 with 16 home runs, 20 stolen bases, 24.5% strikeout rate, and a 14.8% walk rate. Fangraphs rated his offense to be a staggering 66% better than league average with a 166 wRC+. It was the highest total by a Diamondbacks prospect in Double-A since Paul Goldschmidt's 178 mark in 2011.

Carroll was placed on the injured list after testing positive for COVID, missing nearly two weeks of action, but returned on July 7th and was promoted to Triple-A Reno. He picked up right where he left off, appearing in 35 games with Reno and hitting .296/.418/.556 with eight home runs, 11 stolen bases, 23.6% strikeout rate, and a 15.8% walk rate. His wRC+ with Reno was 144, suggesting the level wasn't too challenging and Carroll was ready for the big leagues.

Arizona promoted him on August 29th, where he debuted against the Philadelphia Phillies. Carroll made an immediate impact, in which his speed caused a throwing error in one six-run inning and then a go-ahead hit against a lefty the following inning to break a tie. Due to his efforts, the D-backs were able to pick up their biggest come-from-behind win in franchise history in which they erased a 7-0 deficit to win 13-7. In his first 32 games, Carroll hit .260/.330/.500 with four home runs, two stolen bases, a 27% strikeout rate, and a 7% walk rate. 

2023 Outlook

Carroll still retains his rookie eligibility for 2023, which means he is eligible for the Rookie of the Year race. Not only would he take home more pay, earning $750K for winning the award and $500K for finishing second, but the D-backs stand to benefit as well either in the form of a draft pick or international signing bonus money. For Carroll to have a shot at winning the award, he'll need to have at least a 5.0 WAR season in 2023. The good news is that Carroll played at that roughly that pace in his first five weeks in the big leagues.

The most important areas to improve will be picking and choosing his spots to steal and hitting left-handed pitching. He has the speed, twitchiness, and instincts to be a terror on the bases but needs to learn when it's time to risk an out for 90 feet. He'll have a great teacher for that in Dave McKay, one of the best baserunning and outfield instructor in the big leagues. 

The bigger issue is being able to provide value when teams match up lefties to get him out in big situations. Carroll hit .179/.233/.357 against southpaws in the big leagues, which continued a trend of a serious drop-off in production when facing lefties in the minor leagues. He'll get opportunities to work on that, because that's really the last hurdle for Carroll if the goal is to become a "face of the franchise" type player, as his play symbolizes the identity of the team on the field.

Carroll should receive plenty of opportunities with Arizona if healthy, as he would be their primary leadoff hitter due to the pressure he puts on a defense. He'll likely receive 140 starts between the three outfield spots and occasionally play as the designated hitter to get him off his feet. In total, should he play the entire year in Arizona he will get roughly 600 plate appearances. Where he plays defensively will also depend who the other outfielders on the roster are, especially Alek Thomas. If Carroll is playing a corner position, he'll be one of the favorites to be a Gold Glove finalist if not win the award outright.

MLB Projection

Carroll presents the highest probability of developing into an All-Star out of the current prospect list going into the 2023 season. As mentioned above, he is a five-tool player whose speed really stands out. He's capable of playing a great center field, but may never get that chance in Arizona due to the roster dynamics so he'll have to contend with lapping the competition in left field.

Carroll's ceiling is a player who at his peak could not only win a batting title, but also hit 25 home runs, steal 40 bases, and play outstanding outfield defense. The only other two players I can think of that provided that impact recently are Mike Trout, who has already punched his ticket into Cooperstown, and Mookie Betts, who isn't that far behind. However that ceiling also includes being able to hit left-handed pitchers at an acceptable rate.

Most likely Carroll will appear in one or two All-Star games representing Arizona. I could see him having a couple seasons where he hits above .300 with an on-base percentage over .400, and a wRC+ around 140. In seasons where he puts those numbers up, he is an MVP candidate when factoring in baserunning and defensive value. Carroll is the type of guy that Arizona must hold on to and try to extend long term, even if that means taking a risk on a guy before he reaches his ceiling.