Dominic Canzone Continues to Rake for the Reno Aces
With the draft next Sunday and the Diamondbacks looking to be buyers at the trade deadline, now is a good time to take a snapshot of the entire farm system. We'll start with their Triple-A affiliate in Reno. Reno, and the Pacific Coast League in general, can be a difficult level to evaluate due to the extreme offensive environment. Greater Nevada Field is one of many high elevation ballparks or dry climates, which has a negative effect on the movement of pitches.
Hitters
Dominic Canzone is waiting for a big league opportunity, despite putting up excellent numbers. In 88 games, he's hitting .344 with 16 home runs, more walks than strikeouts, and a 1.061 OPS. FanGraphs rates his overall offensive impact to be 45% better than the average PCL hitter. At the same time, he is an old-for-the-level prospect who will turn 26 in a month with only one playable tool for the big leagues. Arizona may look to sell high on his stock at the trade deadline for pitching help, or give him a cup of coffee in September to see if he has any sticking power.
Dominic Fletcher is already back up in the big leagues, but has shown he is ready to get an extended look. With Reno, he is hitting .325 with three home runs and a .914 OPS. In the big leagues, he's hit .303 with a .796 OPS although batted ball data suggests he's had some good fortunes. His .342 weighted on-base average (wOBA) is nearly 90 points higher than his .255 xwOBA, suggesting there may be some regression in the numbers coming up.
He has the profile of a fourth outfielder who plays quality defense with enough walks and pop to put together league-average production against right-handed pitchers in the big leagues. Of the D-backs prospects in Triple-A that could be made available, he has the most long term value. Since he's controllable through the 2029 season, Arizona does not have to force a trade to move valuable outfield depth. At the same time, he's about to turn 26 in September and isn't the type of player who moves the needle forward much for the team.
Tristin English dominated Double-A for the first month of the season, but hasn't been as effective after a promotion to Reno. His ground ball rate has jumped 10%, which handicaps his 65-grade raw power. It's also a reason why he's grounded into 11 double plays. The combination of a high strikeout rate of 26% and the ground ball rate makes him a very risky power prospect who is a first baseman/designated hitter defensive profile.
Buddy Kennedy is hitting .337 with great strikeout and walk rates for the level, but is a 24-year-old prospect who lacks a standout tool. While his 144 wRC+ is right up there with Canzone, it's driven by a 17% walk rate boosting his on-base percentage. At the same time he lacks a true defensive position, with not enough pop to stick at a corner infield position and not enough range to hold down second base. It's unlikely he finds his way back onto the 40-man roster without a slew of injuries on the infield.
Jorge Barrosa is another low ceiling prospect who is currently blocked from a big league opportunity. His offensive numbers aren't particularly strong, as he's hitting .280 with seven home runs and an .852 OPS. His 104 wRC+ doesn't jump off the page, but he's a 22-year-old prospect with a short stature and not much raw power to speak of. He has the profile of a 4th-5th outfielder whose speed and defense are valuable in his early years.
Pitchers
Brandon Pfaadt has not been able to make the jump from Triple-A, a level where he's pitched very well in, and the big leagues. That's not too uncommon for pitching prospects, although it is disheartening to see him with a 9.82 ERA after six MLB starts. It's a reminder that not every top prospect is going to immediately succeed in the big leagues.
Slade Cecconi has the best raw stuff of all the Reno arms, but has been hit hard this season. In 15 starts this year, he's pitched to a 7.58 ERA and allowed 21 home runs in 73 2/3 IP. The home runs are a big issue, as it offsets a pretty decent 82/26 strikeout to walk ratio. After Pfaadt you can make a case he's the best pitching prospect in the system. In the off-season they altered his delivery to make his fastball more playable in the strike zone. His time in the big leagues may be coming up soon.
Blake Walston has not developed in the way the organization envisioned when they made him a first rounder in the 2019 draft. His fastball is virtually unplayable in MLB, which is why he's been working on a cutter this season. There are enough secondary pitches in his arsenal that he could become a No. 5 starter, but there may be less upside with him than Tommy Henry.
Bryce Jarvis was hoping by improving his extension that his fastball would become less hittable. That hasn't happened this year, as opponents are hitting .398 and slugging .633 against his 4-seam fastball. The pitch is fairly straight and has more natural sink than rise, so they may need to change up the approach. If he has a usable fastball to go with a plus slider and changeup, he has the profile of a middle of the rotation starter.
Justin Martinez has already been called up once this year, but has yet to make his debut. He's got a fastball that sits in the upper 90s and can touch 102 MPH, but despite the velocity is very hittable. His two secondary pitches, the slider and splitter, are not hittable at all. Fastball command is the key for Martinez to be able succeed at the big league level, because if he can establish the fastball in the zone it will make his secondary pitches better.
