Ivan Melendez Could be the Power Bat the D-backs Need

The Diamondbacks No. 8 prospect has top of the scale raw power, but comes with a lot of swing-and-miss risk.

This article is part of a series counting down the Diamondbacks' Top 30 prospects entering the 2024 season. These rankings are determined by Michael McDermott, in conjunction with the Inside the Diamondbacks staff.

Summary: Ivan Melendez was selected by the D-backs in the second round of the 2022 MLB Draft and signed for $1.4 million. Melendez possesses elite power with the upside that teams dream of having in the middle of their lineup, but comes with significant warts at the plate. Swing and miss concerns threaten to tank his overall offensive profile, thanks to a swing with a very steep bat path through the strike zone. There are also concerns about his long term defensive home, as the organization is trying him at third base while most prospect evaluators see a first base profile.

Rank: 8

Age: 24

Height/Weight: 6'3" 225 lbs.

Bats/Throws: Right/Right

Tools: Hit 40, Power 70, Defense 45, Run 40, Arm 45, Overall 45

ETA: 2025

What the D-backs are saying about him?

“Ivan was the Golden Spikes winner this year in college baseball, hit 32 homers, any time you got a chance to add that type of right-handed power to your organization I think it’s super valuable.” - Scouting director Ian Rebhan, July 2022

2023 Recap: Melendez's season started slowly as a sore hand delayed the start to his regular season followed by a concussion sustained on a hit-by-pitch in his first month. However he was able to bounce back and hit .289 with 18 home runs in 51 games once healthy. After terrorizing the Northwest League, Melendez was promoted to the home run inflating environment of Amarillo. In 38 games he homered 12 more times, but also carried a 60/10 strikeout to walk ratio. The strikeouts became a huge problem, as he went down on strikes in 34% of his regular season plate appearances. A minor ankle injury sustained in August shut down his season, but the D-backs sent him to the Arizona Fall League. Despite being one of the top prospects there, Melendez struggled to a .229/.340/.326 slash line with just two home runs and 27 strikeouts. The strikeouts are a large enough problem that could very well tank his profile if changes aren't made.

2024 Expectations: The key for Melendez is finding a way to cut into that strikeout rate. After a 34% clip in 2023, he'll repeat Amarillo and then move on to Reno so there will need to be a significant cut to around 25-28%. He'll continue to get reps at third base, although the acquisition of Eugenio Suárez last month will buy some time for him to develop at the position. The team is likely more focused on getting his bat where it needs to be than his defensive positioning, although sticking at third gives more leeway for his bat. In addition, there is some pressure behind him in the system with 2023 second rounder Gino Groover offering a similar upside profile with a higher floor as a hitter.

Projection: A potential right-hand first base profile with a steep swing path is a very concerning profile, but one the organization needs to develop. Christian Walker is a free agent after the 2024 season and while they have some intriguing Triple-A depth in Tristin English, Melendez is the type of bat that could potentially make a sufficient replacement. If he can cut his strikeout rate to the 25% range, he's an everyday first baseman with 35 home run power. However if the strikeouts fail to drop in his second year in the system, he's looking more like a bench bat.

Top 30 Diamondbacks Prospects Entering the 2024 Season