Prospects the D-backs Should Not Trade Before Their Debut
The Diamondbacks have positioned themselves to take a look at the trade market to improve their roster. However they're also in the position where a tough two weeks could have them selling instead of buying. This year shapes up to be a weird deadline in which it's a clear sellers market with the lack of clear sellers for talent controllable beyond this year.
In the situation in which Arizona finds themselves in position to add pitching to their rotation or bullpen at the deadline, we can assume Brandon Pfaadt, Jordan Lawlar, and Druw Jones are off the table. However beyond those three, the D-backs really shouldn't trade the below prospects before they have a chance to prove themselves in the big leagues. For this exercise, we will also exclude the 2023 draft class since none of them are going to be moved at the deadline anyway.
Ivan Melendez
Melendez gives Arizona the best bet at developing a power bat that could hit in the middle of the order. He only possesses one elite tool, which is raw power, but with a lot of strikeouts with 90 in 265 plate appearances. At the same time, he doesn't walk much with just 21 on the season. He clearly profiles as a low average slugger, but his excellent makeup may suggest that it is too early to make any definitive projections on how he'll turn out.
A rough idea of what should be considered best case scenario for Melendez is hitting around .240 with 35+ home runs and above-average defense. Once such example we can look at is Christian Walker last season, who hit .242 with 36 home runs and played Gold Glove defense en route to a 5-WAR season. That's likely his absolute ceiling as a player, which would be great for the D-backs if that happened. However there is the risk of there just not being enough pitch recognition in which he can force pitchers into the strike zone, where he can do damage on them.
The D-backs had a similar prospect 13 years ago with similar strengths and weaknesses. As we learned then, Paul Goldschmidt had the makeup and work ethic to shore up his weaknesses with the bat and the glove before breaking out in 2011 in Double-A. While we shouldn't expect Melendez to go on to have a similar career, the combination of one elite tool and the makeup is worth taking a gamble on.
Kristian Robinson
Like with Melendez, there is a huge bust risk with the hit tool for Robinson but his ceiling is worth gambling on. As a teenager, the tool set was comparable to former D-backs All-Star Justin Upton although the latter had a more impressive physical profile. Entering the 2020 season, Robinson was viewed as one of the top prospects in the game because of that ceiling.
Fast-forward three years later and he's trying to get back into the rhythm of playing baseball after a long layoff. After 32 games, the organization promoted him to High-A. There is a lot of swing-and-miss in his bat but the loud tools, particularly the power and speed tools, give him the possibility of 30 home run, 30 stolen base upside if he can get on base at a league-average rate. Given the strikeouts, which is roughly around 30% between his two stints in Low-A, there is a lot of risk there isn't enough contact to utilize his best two tools.
The organization has a lot of outfield prospects ahead of Robinson, but they all profile as fourth and fifth outfielders. Robinson's upside is only potentially exceeded by Corbin Carroll and Druw Jones. One is the centerpiece of the franchise and the other was the second overall pick in last year's draft. While there is a very strong possibility Robinson's hit tool completely causes him to bust, the potential payoff is worth the patience.
Yilber Diaz
Had Justin Martinez not made his debut earlier this month, he would have likely taken a spot but the same principle applies with any other high octane arm in the organization. Diaz touches 100 MPH with his fastball and has a sharp, biting curveball that functions as an offspeed pitch. Like with Martinez, the D-backs need to turn some of their high octane arms into reliable bullpen arms since they don't have the budget to go get a closer in free agency and can't risk trading the talent necessary to land one.
He's currently being used as starter with their High-A affiliate in Hillsboro, but the chances of him developing into one are slim to none. That means they need to consider how to better utilize his bullets and not waste them in the minors in a role he's unlikely to end up in. A move to the bullpen could accelerate his path to the big leagues in 2024 and earn him a cup of coffee in his Rule 5 season.
Jansel Luis
As a middle infielder that switch hits and boasts a projectable 6'1", 170-pound frame, Luis will naturally draw Ketel Marte comparisons. Both the hit and power tool project to be above-average and there is some sticking power at shortstop, although he may move off the position as he fills out more like Marte did in Arizona.
While he's still only at the complex, the possibility he could develop into a potential All-Star middle infielder is worth holding onto. The D-backs will have two middle infielder prospects reach the big leagues before Luis in both Lawlar and 2023 first rounder Tommy Troy. It would certainly help if Luis could slide over to third to keep the three on the same infield, but it's too early for that to be a serious suggestion.
