The Diamondbacks' Sprint to the Finish Will Be Wild

With 16 games remaining in a tight race, there are a multitude of scenarios that could play out as the D-backs try to fend off the Braves, Mets, and Padres

Aug 28, 2024; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll (7) celebrates after hitting a grand slam home run against the New York Mets during the eighth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

The Arizona Diamondbacks are in a dog fight for a National League Wild Card berth. With an 82-64 record they enter play on Friday, September 13th in the first wild card position, holding a slim half game lead over the San Diego Padres. The New York Mets are two games back, and the Atlanta Braves are just on the outside looking in, three games behind the Diamondbacks, and a game behind the Mets.

NL WILD CARD STANDINGS

NL Wild Card Standings Through September 12 / Jack Sommers

Each of the above teams have 16 games remaining, except the Padres who have 15. The Diamondbacks and Padres will face each other for the final three games of the season at Chase Field from September 27-29.

The focus over the last couple of weeks for the scoreboard watchers among the D-backs and their fans has been the status of the Mets and Braves. Arizona just needs to stay ahead of one of those two teams to insure they return to the Postseason. That is the primary goal. Get to the dance.

The secondary, but still critical goal, as stated by manager Torey Lovullo, is to maintain their current status as the first Wild Card seed. That would allow them to host the second Wild Card seed for the entire three games, if necessary, at Chase Field.

An important factor to remember is both the Braves and the Mets beat the D-backs head to head in the regular season series, and thus hold the tiebreaker over Arizona. With 16 games remaining, if the D-backs go 8-8, the Braves would have to go 11-5 to tie them, and the Mets must go 10-6. Remember, the D-backs miss the Postseason if both those teams tie or pass them. Below is a table charting the various win-loss outcomes.

Remaining games NL Wild Card contenders / Jack Sommers

If the D-backs can take care of business by going 10-6, for example, then that forces the Braves and Mets to go 13-3 and 12-4 respectively to tie them in the standings. The odds that both of those two teams could pull that off are almost nonexistent. The D-backs would be a virtual lock for the Postseason in that scenario, thus it's highlighted in green.

If the D-backs go 8-8, Atlanta and New York must still go 11-5 and 10-6 respectively. The odds of that happening aren't great either, but it's in yellow, i.e., cautionary. If the D-backs go 6-10 or worse, however, then they've put themselves in the red zone, and made it very possible that both Atlanta and New York could pass them just by going 9-7 and 8-8.

All of this will unfold over the next two weeks. The greatest likelihood is that the D-backs will still be looking to clinch their Postseason berth come the first game of the Padres series on September 27th. If Arizona manages to clinch a spot before then, the seeding to determine if they get home games at Chase Field will almost certainly still be up for grabs.

Baseball is unpredictable, Anything can, and often does happen. The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks themselves are a prime example of that. They went into Milwaukee last year and swept two straight as the last Wild Card seed. They went to Los Angeles and beat the Dodgers two straight in Los Angeles, and finished off the sweep at home.

Then they improbably went into Philadelphia down 3-2 in the NLCS and walked away with a Pennant and a trip to the World Series.

Still, not only are the Arizona Diamondbacks trying to return to the Postseason in back to back seasons for the first time since the 2001-2002 seasons, but they want to insure they do so in front of the hometown fans at Chase Field.