2020 Dodgers Player Projections: A.J. Pollock

2020 Dodgers Player Projections: A.J. Pollock

A.J. Pollock is the Dodgers’ resident pin cushion. And for good reason.

L.A.’s $60 million centerfielder — and he was signed to play center, remember — was not just the worst player last October when his team needed him most. He was the worst player imaginable. You want sugar-coating, go elsewhere.

Pollock was that bad in the 2019 National League Division Series. He was badder than that bad. The 0-13 doesn’t even begin to explain it. The 11 strikeouts does, however. It begins to explain it.

A more ambitious reporter than I might string together a video of the NLDS swings and misses, but even as poison pen as I’m being right now, I’m not that cruel.

A.J. Pollock is a pin cushion in this space (and a few others) because he is essentially a cross between one-time free agents Gary Matthews, Jr. and Melvin Upton, Jr., with a dash of Grady Sizemore and Chris Davis thrown in for taste. Bad taste. That’s the insulting part. He also has something in common with Juan Pierre, which is the kind-words part.

Pierre, you may recall, signed a five-year $44 million deal back in 2006, and while he was never a great player, he did what Los Angeles paid him to do; slap singles around, steal some bases and be a generally-good Dodger. He’d also played in 162 games four years running before coming to L.A. and did so again his first year here. Can you imagine Pollock playing in 162 games even once, let alone five straight years?

Pollock had one great season: In 2015 he played in 157 games (157!), recording 192 hits, including 39 doubles and 20 home runs, with 76 RBIs, 36 steals and a .315/.367/.498 mark.

He is simply no longer that player. Instead he is a slow-footed double-clutching left fielder, whose strikeout rates have risen from a low 13 percent in 2015 by more than 50 percent, to 21.6 and 21.7 the last two seasons. Sure, small sample size, but Pollock fanned 85 percent of the time in the 2019 NLDS and is at 32 percent this spring.

While the right-hand hitting Pollock never had an issue with same-side pitchers earlier in his career, he has one now. He hit .221/.277/.464 versus RHP in 2018 and .239/.308/.435 last year. His likely platoon partner in left field in 2020, Joc Pederson, hit .252/.349/.571 with 36 homers and 73 RBIs in 401 at bats vs. RHP in 2019.

Spring stats:

11 games, 31 AB, 2 R, 1 HR, 5 RBIs, 10 Ks, .161/.188/.290.

2019 stats:

86 games, 308 AB, 49 R, 82 H, 15 2B, 15 HR, 47 RBIs, .266/.327/468, 0.2 bWAR.

Career stats:

723 G, 2585 AB, 416 R, 722 H, 159  2B, 30 3B, 89 HR, 311 RBIs, .279/.337/.467, 20.3 bWAR.

Baseball Reference projects Pollock's 2020 season this way:

417 PA, 375 AB, 58 R, 21 2B, 17 HR, 54 RBI, .256/.320/.464.

Similarly, Steamer projects the following:

402 PA, 92 H, 16 HR, 51 R, 53 RBI, .254/.315/.450.

My projections::

281 AB, 41 R, 70 H, 16 2B, 15 HR, 38 RBIs, .248/.319/.444.

Comment: What the BR and Steamer projection do not and cannot account for is the presence of a player like Pederson on the L.A. roster. The sites' projections do not and cannot account for the presence of Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts in the same outfield as Pollock, nor even the presence of Chris Taylor, who I'd argue is the better player to platoon with Pederson.

Pollock has never been a platoon player before because he hasn't needed to be one. Now he does. It's certainly possible that he adapts to the role quickly and lights up left-handers throughout the 2020 campaign, while becoming a valuable contributor to the Dodgers' quest for a World Series championship, which is the point of the upcoming season. The only point. But what are the chances of that happening?

And remember, glove conquers all.