2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Justin Turner

2020 Dodgers Player Projections: Justin Turner

Justin Turner is a leader of men. And more importantly, he’s a leader of Dodgers. I’ve said many times that JT should be named the team’s captain. Los Angeles hasn’t had one since Dave Lopes in 1979, and I have no idea why that is the case.

The Dodgers’ third baseman went off on commissioner Rob Manfred Monday, about Manfred's handling of the Astros’ sign-stealing punishment (or lack thereof), and about his reducing Houston’s World Series championship, which played clean might have been L.A.’s, to a “ piece of metal.” And Turner wasn’t messing around.

"I don't know if the commissioner has ever won anything in his life. Maybe he hasn't. But the reason every guy's in this room, the reason every guy is working out all offseason, and showing up to camp early and putting in all the time and effort is specifically for that trophy, which, by the way, is called the commissioner's trophy.

"So for him to devalue it the way he did yesterday just tells me how out of touch he is with the players in this game. At this point the only thing devaluing that trophy is that it says 'commissioner' on it."

If there has been an in-real-time and stinging a critique of a baseball commish in my lifetime, I can’t think of it. Manfred has since apologized.

While it should go without saying, I'll say it anyway: Turner's value to the Dodgers goes well beyond what can be seen in a stat line. Well beyond. But since this is a forecast piece, let's get to it.

2019 stats: 

135 games, 549 PA, 80 R, 139 H, 24 2B, 27 HR, 67 RBIs, .290/.372/509, 3.7 bWAR.

Career stats:

1072 G, 3371 AB, 478 R, 982 H, 225 2B, 8 3B, 120 HR, 472 RBIs, .292/.367/.470, 29.5 bWAR.

Baseball Reference projects Turner's 2020 season this way:

517 PA, 447 AB, 72 R, 22 2B, 29 HR, 64 RBI, .289/.374/.487.

A bit more optimistic, Steamer projects the following:

613 PA, 27 HR, 80 R, 85 RBI, .21/.364/.538.

My projections are about in between:

478 AB, 74 R, 140 H, 25 2B, 24 HR, 79 RBIs, .293/.368/.498.

Comment: In his six years in Los Angeles, Turner has played an average of 125 games per seasons. Two reasons for that. In 2014, he was establishing himself as a successful Dodger, and one who was acquired to be something less than a full-time player. And two, injury, which has been increasingly a concern in recent seasons.

I don't know about you, but I think "hamstring, hamstring, hamstring!" every time I see JT trying to score from second on a well-placed single. He's 35 now and the Dodgers, who are notorious for hamstrings, have got to watch their leader like a hawk.

While Dave Roberts likes to rotate designated hitters to spell his regulars, Turner ought to get the lion's share of the calls in 2020. The four combined appearances at DH in 2018 and 2019 are not going to cut it. Around 135 games is a reasonable goal. Not 135 games started on the diamond, mind you, but 135 including appearances as a pinch hitter and a DH.

I have no doubt that Turner can be his usual productive self in 2020. What I'm less sure about it is getting him to October in good shape.

And remember, glove conquers all.

Howard Cole has been writing about baseball on the internet since Y2K. Follow him on Twitter.