Can Dodgers' Shohei Ohtani Reach 500 Career Home Runs?

Maren Angus-Coombs | Aug 22, 2024

Tim Vizer-USA TODAY Sports

When Aaron Judge launched his 300th career home run just a few games ago, it sparked a topic of conversation in the baseball world: Who has a realistic shot of reaching 500 homers someday?

Reaching the milestone will enshrine anyone in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Only 28 players have ever achieved the feat. Miguel Cabrera is the most recent member of the club after joining in 2021.

Fox Sports baseball writer Deesha Thosar examined 18 "active power hitters who belong in the conversation for 500 and handicapped their chances."

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani could reach 500 if he stays healthy. He currently has 210 career home runs. The other thing preventing him from possibly reaching the gaudy number is his pitching. Next season, he will return to his two-way responsibilities which could affect his hitting.

"Ohtani's durability will always be in question so long as he continues pitching and hitting, and he would need to stay on the field and average 40 home runs for the next seven years to even come close to 500," writes Thosar. "It's dicey."

Joining Ohtani in the second tier of players is his former teammate with the Los Angeles Angels, Mike Trout, who has 378 career homers. Trout seemed like a shoo-in before he was plagued by injuries.

"The same goes for Trout, who many expected to land in the 500 HR club, but that seems doubtful now, given his uptick of stints on the injured list," writes Thosar.

Thirdly, there is Giancarlo Stanton who has 422 home runs. He seems to be in the best position to reach 500 despite being 34 years old.

Writes Thosar: "Out of this trio, Stanton is best positioned to reach that elusive 500 mark, and though he's one of the oldest players on this list, he's only 78 dingers away. There are three more years left on his contract to motivate him to get it done, which would require roughly 25 home runs per season. That's a no-brainer for a healthy Stanton — even though that's far from a guarantee for a slugger who is frequently running into hamstring injuries that rob him of precious at-bats."

The list of likely players ahead of the previously mentioned three players includes Aaron Judge (301), Bryce Harper (332), Juan Soto (194) and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (155).